Episode 19: Reinvesting in the Latam Tech Ecosystem with Brian Requarth

Brian Requarth is the Co-Founder of Latitud and former CEO of Viva Real. Through Latitud, he now dedicates his time to providing mentorship and advice for entrepreneurs in Latin America (LATAM).

Brian’s new book, Viva the Entrepreneur: Founding, Scaling, and Raising Venture Capital in Latin America shares the hard lessons he learned while building and scaling his company. It covers best practices for communicating with your co-founder, finding great investors, and building a good board. Brian joins me this week to share how he’s investing his resources back to LATAM, and lessons for marketplace businesses.

 

Social Capital

Brian’s work is part of a greater initiative to connect founders in LATAM with high level founders, advisors, and investors. His goal is to elevate the Latin American startup community by providing access to global mentors.

Investors are beginning to realize the massive potential for fast growing companies. Companies from emerging markets have the advantage of having large markets with fewer competition.

Latitud helps founders in Latin America leverage the collective knowledge and wisdom from global mentors. The rigorous program is a month packed with insightful talks and one-on-one sessions. This social capital model provides value and inspires founders to execute their vision.

Focus on owning one market

When building a marketplace, you should focus on being a big fish in a medium-sized pond. Founders often make the mistake of scaling globally too early and wasting resources.

“Matching supply and demand is critical.”

Chasing the international market is a distraction. Marketplaces should focus on dominating localities first, then branching outward. Start in one specific area then expand to neighbouring ones, which allows companies to focus on rapidly improving their service/product as feedback is implemented quicker.

Build a strong inner circle

Being a founder can often feel lonely. This is especially true for first-time founders who have not yet seen success. Brian highlights the importance of creating a trusted network and emphasizes two key takeaways to keep you on the right track:

  1. Find other founders who are ahead of you in their journey. Fellow founders are better able to empathize with the struggles of raising capital, leading a team, and hiring/firing.
  1. Have a good executive team. They will rise above challenges during crisis moments, carry your vision, and come up with unique solutions to problems. 

“Find a trusted network.”

Persistence

Brian reminds us that during challenging times, a founder must focus on the things they can control and resist distractions beyond their control. When driven by a mission rather than money, they are more persistent in the face of adversity.

“It’s about persistence and focus.”

Viva Entrepreneur is full of insights and lessons from someone who has walked the talk. Brian is honest and transparent. I recommend this book to anyone looking to learn what it takes to build a great company.

You can also invest in Brian’s rolling fund at: http://fund.latitud.com/


If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

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FJ 实验室估值矩阵

不久前,我发布了FJ Labs 用来评估市场初创企业的矩阵。 多年来,它一直是我们默认的内部框架,但仅限于承购率为 10-20% 的市场,而这曾是我们的衣食父母。 不过,现在我们主要投资于 B2B 市场,这些市场的收益率通常为 3-5%。 该框架也不适用于 SAAS 企业和电子商务企业。

此外,你应该向谁筹款以及对筹款收益的预期也不够明确。 投资人和风险投资人通常按阶段划分,您需要在正确的阶段与正确的风险投资人交谈。 因此,我重新设计了矩阵,使其更加清晰并涵盖大多数情况。

为了解决每个阶段的预期牵引力问题,我将参考指标从商品销售总额(GMV)改为净收入。 这使我们能够对不同业务模式的牵引力进行比较,尽管仍存在一些差异,如大多数 SAAS 业务的利润率超过 90%,而大多数市场的利润率为 60-70%,电子商务的利润率也各不相同。

请注意,还有一个隐含的增长预期,即您将在 18 个月左右的时间内从一个阶段过渡到另一个阶段。

请注意,上述范围包括中位数。 但也有很多例外,尤其是高端产品。 换言之,标准偏差相当高。 第二次成功的创始人可以以更高的估值进行融资。 成长速度比一般公司快得多的公司往往可以 “跳过一个阶段”,把 A 轮融资做成 B 轮融资,或者把 B 轮融资做成 C 轮融资。

我还附上了FJ 实验室市场矩阵的原文,以供参考。

Episode 18: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs with Tim Jackson

Tim Jackson is a fellow entrepreneur, venture capitalist and author. He has lived an interesting life from a career in journalism for the Financial Times, to VC seed funding for technology startups. It was no accident that he would eventually find himself in this world – he recalls speaking on the phone and writing a column about some guy called Jeff, who had just started a company called Amazon in 1995.

Tim fell in love with VC as a managing director running a $700m fund for The Carlyle Group in Europe:

“I realized that actually my heart is with the struggling entrepreneur, who’s got a fantastic business that isn’t yet quite right.”

His new book, Startup: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs, will teach you how to make better decisions and become a more competent CEO. Tim knows firsthand how frustrating it is to navigate the seas of heading a company with no guidance. He joined me this week to share some of his knowledge and insights with us.

Walk

There are two driving philosophies behind Tim’s emphasis on ‘walking’ when it comes to startups.

  1. Taking walks around Kensington Gardens and Hyde Park with potential entrepreneurs led to having conversations that were much more agreeable, personal, and revealing. Knowing the type of person a founder is goes a long way.

“I had underweighted founder skills and temperament as a factor in our investment decision making. I thought it would be a good idea to move the process of due diligence to the top of the funnel stage and actually meet entrepreneurs and learn about their life stories (instead) of hearing their pitches.”

  1. Building a startup is not a sprint. In fact, it is not even a marathon – it’s more like walking. Think about the totality of the slow yet consistent steps taken over the course of one’s life. Tim warns against the common trap VCs fall into: being overly hasty and setting unrealistic timescales.

“It’s a bit like that line of Peter Thiel: people overestimate what they can achieve in a year and underestimate what they can achieve in a decade. If you just walk for a couple of hours every morning, you can cover an awful lot of ground.”


Leading and Managing

From years of observing and working with CEOs, Tim has developed five basic things you should keep in mind when approaching a discussion with somebody who is reporting to you. These ideas are encompassed in the acronym: SCRIM.

  • Suitability

There is definitely a limit to the resources (time and capital) you can spend on trying to improve or train someone that just will not fit. The sooner you can recognize that you probably hired the wrong person, or you gave them a role they are not suited for, the better.

  • Coaching your reports

Founders and CEOs often fall into the trap of hiring people who have accomplished everything before the job they need to do. Not only can this be expensive, but it may be unfulfilling for them. It’s great to hire people for potential and skills, but then it’s your responsibility to coach them so they acquire the specific knowledge needed in your business. I often see founders get the hiring for potential right, but then ignore the fact that the person needs some help and support to perform best.

  • Regularity

It is all well and good for someone to know what to do but having the required frequency of contact is important to execute and function reliably.

  • Involvement/Incentivization

It is crucial to ensure that everyone reporting to you feels excited about what they’re doing and what you’re all trying to achieve together. Aim to give others a shared sense of destiny with the success of the company.

  • Metrics

There is no getting around the hard quantitative data that shows you whether a person is doing a good job and how well things are going week to week.

“My sense is that the CEO who touches all those bases is unlikely to go too far wrong in managing a team”

Getting along with your co-founder

“In terms of failings…a second big slice will be falling out with co-founders. Very often things tend to get ignored until the point where there’s actually a problem that can’t be fixed.”

Having honest conversations with your co-founder can be difficult, but it is one of the most crucial things you can do. Sugar coating things often leads to misunderstandings that can fester like an untreated wound. Be transparent with feedback, expectations of each other and roles.

Tim also talks about the importance of responsibility and involvement. A failing CEO is often either neglecting others or micromanaging them. He advocates for striving to find the delicate balance between the two:

“If I am the outside person, and my job is to reach out to 30 VC funds, then you as my co-founder and co-CEO are allowed to say, so how’s it going? How many have you reached out to, and where are they?”

Delegate responsibility but maintain some degree of involvement and presence for others.

The 3 things a founder can do to run a successful business:

  1. Find the right market

There is an awful lot of founders who are building products which either aren’t going to serve enough people, or they’re serving people that don’t have enough money at their disposal to build a real business.

  1. Get the product right

This is a very early-stage consideration, but it is surprising how many companies go much further than they ought to in scaling before they have the product right. Build the foundation first.

  1. Scalability

Recognizing that ultimately your ability to scale a business is all about the people. Specifically, hiring people who can run the business at 100x the size it is today.

To run a company at scale effectively, you are going to need skills which you may not have today. The reality is that you may have to acquire the skills “while the airplane is still in mid-flight.”  Having the courage to admit and recognize your limitations is often the most effective way to lead – trust and learn from others.

Startup: Thirty-Six Lessons from Company Founders & CEOs, Tim’s new book, is available from Amazon. It is an invaluable tool at all stages of leadership: whether you are a budding entrepreneur or a seasoned CEO. Strive to learn and growth will follow.

If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

In addition to the above Youtube video and embedded podcast player, you can also listen to the podcast on:

欢迎来到 “万物泡沫”!

市场狂热的警兆无处不在。 市盈率很高,而且还在攀升。 比特币在一年内上涨了 300%。 SPAC 首次公开发行股票的数量激增。 密集大城市以外的房地产价格正在迅速上涨。

标准普尔 500 市盈率

过去 12 个月的 BTC 价格

这些,再加上散户推动的空头挤压、小型泡沫和波动加剧,都是泡沫的症状。

乍一看,数百万人失业或就业不足,我们正处于泡沫之中这一事实似乎令人惊讶。 然而,在大流行病期间,由于政府采取了历史性的财政刺激措施,个人收入增加了一万多亿美元。

3 月至 11 月,工资只下降了 430 亿美元。 虽然许多低端服务业工人失业,但薪酬较高的专业工作并未受到影响,一些低技能工作(如仓储和杂货店)也蓬勃发展,导致失业率低于预期。

政府支持计划的规模是前所未有的。 失业保险计划为美国人的口袋注入了 4990 亿美元。 向大多数美国家庭发放的 1200 美元刺激经济支票又增加了 2,760 亿美元。 总之,2020 年 3 月至 11 月,美国人的税后收入比 2019 年增加了 1 万多亿美元。 因此,美国的破产申请在 2020 年创下了 35 年来的新低!

除此之外,自由支配支出也大幅下降。 由于人们不去度假,不去餐馆、电影院、体育场馆、音乐会等,服务支出减少了 5 750 亿美元。 虽然美国人在耐用品上的支出略有增加,但总体支出仍减少了 5 350 亿美元。

加上个人收入的增加,美国人额外节省了 1.5 万亿美元!

虽然这些额外的现金有一部分用于存款,但也有很多用于投资,抬高了资产价格。 这是在美联储释放大量流动性并承诺将利率保持在零附近的基础上发生的–事实上,现在的实际利率已经低于零。

资产价格的价值应是其未来现金流折现后的净现值。

利率接近 0,可以证明估值高得多。 如果你认为现在的利率将永远保持在 0 附近,那么目前的估值其实是合理的。 考虑到全球大多数国家政府的财政状况都因赤字和债务的不可持续增长而不断恶化,我认为情况并非如此。

清算之日即将到来,但可能不会像我在年终报告中担心的那么快。 我怀疑自己 “狼来了 “得太早了。 在可预见的未来,世界仍将更关注打击 COVID,而不是政府债务增加的后果。 此外,私人和公共开支的预期增长将进一步推动经济发展。

在过去十年的大部分时间里,美国的储蓄率一直在 7% 左右。 虽然与 4 月份 33% 的峰值相比有所下降,但仍保持在 13% 左右。 我猜想,一旦 COVID 结束,就会有一个终结所有派对的派对。 人们会去旅行、聚会和消费,就像没有明天一样。 如果储蓄率恢复到事前的 7% 水平,这将意味着额外支出 1.2 万亿美元。 除此之外,还有一个 1.9 万亿美元的经济刺激计划,其中可能包括 1400 美元的直接付款,这无疑是火上浇油。

换句话说,我认为在泡沫破裂之前,我们还有很长的路要走。 在科技泡沫时期,我在文章中写道,很明显,在泡沫破裂前几年,我们就已经处于泡沫之中了。 同样,在房地产泡沫期间,从 2004 年开始,我就警告我所有的朋友不要购买房地产。 在这种情况下,我们更有可能处于 1998 年或 1999 年,而不是 2000 年 2 月。

这一切将如何收场?

资产价格泡沫可以在没有金融危机的情况下破灭,就像科技泡沫时期发生的那样。 我们无法预知投资者的情绪何时会不再像现在这样乐观,而这很可能会在我所期待的消费狂欢之后发生,一旦我们把 COVID 抛诸脑后。

然而,考虑到 COVID 过度发放的所有政府和公司债务,麻烦正在酝酿之中。 有几种方法可以解决这个问题。

1.我们从中成长

这并非没有先例。 一战和二战期间,政府债务急剧膨胀。 然而,两次战争之后,强劲的消费需求和投资都带来了强劲的经济增长。 可能还会发生。 在经历了几十年的生产力增长停滞之后,我们可能即将迎来生产力的繁荣。 COVID 使数字支付、远程医疗、工业自动化、在线教育、电子商务和远程工作的采用率大幅提高。 此外,mRNA 疫苗的开发速度也给人们带来了希望,即医疗保健领域将出现更多创新。

2. 我们充气

美国显然也在努力提高名义通胀率,以保持实际利率为负值,这有助于政府去杠杆化,就像第二次世界大战后所做的那样。 实际利率现在又是负值。

美国 5 年期宝藏收益率曲线利率

鉴于刺激措施的规模和预期的需求增长,我怀疑他们会成功地将名义通胀率推高至 2% 以上,达到美联储的目标。

请注意,这种结果并不总是有保证的。 在过去 30 年的大部分时间里,日本尽管实施了大规模的政府支出和量化宽松政策,却未能创造通货膨胀。 正如津巴布韦在过去二十年中所强调的那样,你也可以超调并造成高通胀。

理想的结果是通胀率控制在 2-3% 之间。

3.我们有盈余

两次世界大战结束后,社会和政治界都达成了强烈的共识,支持限制预算和减少债务。

德国通过盈余将债务与国内生产总值的比率从 2010 年的 82.4%降至 2019 年的 59.8%。

同样,作为救助条件的一部分,希腊也被迫实现盈余并改正其挥霍无度的做法。

我对未来的看法

美国不再有盈余的纪律,但只要美元仍是全球储备货币,它就能继续维持赤字。 清算之日终将到来,但短期内似乎不会出现,因此美国债务将继续膨胀。

有一段时间,我担心下一场金融危机会以一个主要经济体的主权债务危机的形式出现,因为投资者担心它无法再承受其债务水平,就像十年前发生在希腊的情况一样。 我想到了意大利,其债务与国内生产总值的比率将在 2021 年超过 150%。

我不再确定这是最有可能发生的情况。 欧元危机表明,欧洲愿意不惜一切代价维护欧元,我预计这次也不会例外。 虽然可能会出现主权债务危机,但我们很可能会找到一种方法来蒙混过关。

因此,我在想,下一场危机是否不会是信仰危机,而是法定货币危机。 我认为这种情况在未来一年左右不会发生。 然而,鉴于货币供应量不断膨胀,再加上世界上几乎所有主要国家的债务和赤字都出现了不可持续的增长,总有一天会有清算的一天。

作为生活在这个泡沫中的个人,该怎么办?

目前还不清楚泡沫破灭的原因和时间,但有几种方法可以为泡沫破灭做好准备。

首先,在这种环境下,你不应该拥有任何债券。 收益率低得离谱,违约风险也得不到补偿。 与此同时,你还面临着通货膨胀的风险。

其次,我会大幅增加现金持有量,使其达到或超过资产的 20%。 你没有从这些现金上赚到任何钱,而且还失去了通胀价值。 此外,它还会在法定货币危机中贬值。 然而,流动性在其他类型的危机中也很有用,当泡沫破灭时,人们会逃到安全的地方。 它既安全又灵活,还能让你以低廉的价格购买资产。 同时,如果通货膨胀率飙升,您可以在必要时取出现金。

第三,像躲瘟疫一样避免差价。 虽然通货膨胀会降低你的债务价值(抵押贷款也是可以的),但你也不想在泡沫破灭、资产贬值时面临追加保证金的风险。 在 2007-2008 年金融危机期间,许多富人就是这样破产的。

第四,拥有优质股票。 它们在通胀环境中增值,在资产价格下跌时保值。 换句话说,不要因为 FOMO 而追求最新的投资热潮(比特币、Gamestop 等)。 这并不是说,如果你拥有一些比特币,就一定要卖掉。 它是一种数字黄金,可以很好地对冲通胀,但在目前的价格水平下,我不会增加仓位。

你不应该试图做空泡沫,因为正如凯恩斯所说:”市场保持非理性的时间比你保持偿付能力的时间更长”。 玩转泡沫的更好方法是创造资产,比如科技初创企业或 SPAC。

请注意,就我而言,我甚至没有股票。 我有一个杠铃策略,只用现金和早期流动性差的私有初创科技公司。 如果你有足够的分散性(意味着超过 100 项投资)来考虑失败的初创企业,那么私人早期科技初创企业就是最好的资产类别。 它们为经济创造价值,并能迅速发展。 因此,无论在通胀还是通缩环境下,它们都是令人惊叹的资产。

请注意,我的资产在现金和创业公司之间的平衡变化很大。 有时,我全心全意地投入到创业中。 有时,我会保留大量现金储备。 现在,我正在建立现金储备,同时还在进行投资。 我尤其喜欢卖出估值过高的上市科技股(或上市前公司),投资估值稍低的早期初创科技公司的套利方式。 不过,我猜想,在未来几年的某个时候,拥有大量现金储备会派上用场。

祝你好运

Episode 17: The State of Solar

This week Kerim Baran shares where we stand in the world of solar. He covers:

  • The history of solar
  • The impressive decline of the cost of panel over the last 40 years
  • The decline in the cost of batteries
  • Why ultimately batteries plus panels will cost less than maintaining the grid leading most electricity to be made locally in a distributed fashion even if fusion comes to pass and creates energy at 0 marginal cost
  • Why we will have a hybrid setup of grid plus local production for the foreseeable future
  • What to do if you are interested in solar

If you prefer, you can listen to the episode in the embedded podcast player.

In addition to the above Youtube video and embedded podcast player, you can also listen to the podcast on:

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