My conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay

I had a fun conversation with Mark Peter Davis of Interplay about my love of marketplaces and all things FJ Labs. The discussion was peppered with lots of entrepreneurial advice and thoughts on impact.

Their Episode Description:

This week I chatted with Fabrice Grinda, Founding Partner at FJ Labs. FJ Labs is a VC that specializes in marketplaces and invests in every geography in every category at any stage. As Fabrice puts it they do angel investing at venture scale, meaning they don’t lead rounds but do a massive number of investments every year. Last year they made almost 200 investments.

Fabrice is super interesting beyond being a VC. He’s been a serial entrepreneur for a couple of decades at this point and has interesting views on wealth and impact.

He started what was essentially the ebay for Europe and then OLX, the Craigslist for the rest of the world.

During our chat he shares some incredibly useful tips for entrepreneurs – especially for those who are interested in marketplaces. We talk all about his approach to venture capital, how FJ Labs operates and makes decisions and much more. Enjoy.

Show Links:

Transcript (this is an automated transcript):

MPD: Fabric, thanks for being here. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me. 

MPD: I’ve been very excited to have you on I think you’ve got a lot of wisdom and you do something that most people don’t do and that you practice radical candor. It feels like in everything, every time I’ve ever talked to.

So I think we’re going to get into some really interesting topics today. And I think I have a feeling you’re going to share more than people normally comfortable with, which I think is very powerful. You’re going to help a lot of people. Let’s start though. Let’s level set this can you give an overview of FJ labs?

I think people need to know what you’re doing for your day job before we extend beyond. Sure. 

Fabrice Grinda: So my current day job is to be the founding partner at FJ Labs which is a venture fund – actually it’s an accidental venture fund. It really came out of my angel investing activities while I was an interpreter.

So for the last 24 years, I’ve been building companies, I’ve been running companies and. Other founders kept approaching me for me to invest some of them. And for the longest time I thought they were, should I be doing this right? Is it a distraction from my core mandate as a founder to be investing in other startups?

And I’m like, if I can articulate lessons to learn to others it probably means I’ve internalized them. And so it’s okay. And meeting all these amazing founders beyond helping them realize their dreams is also an amazing way to keep my fingers on the pulse of the market. So by 2013, when I sold my last company, which by the way, was like dried or missing.

I don’t know if you want to cover that until I went, the last company was real quick. So the last company was a company called oh blocks. It’s today, the biggest classified site of the world. It’s a 11,000 employees in 30 countries. It’s the leading classified site in Brazil and all black tem and Russia, Ukraine, all of these sued Europe and India, Pakistan of all the Southeast Asia and the UAE and all the middle east.

And it’s basically what Craigslist would be or should be if it was running. By someone like me, meaning a modern UX UI, integrated payments and shipping and escrow. Exactly. No, no spam, no scab, no birders, et cetera. And actually targeting primarily women in a female friendly space, given that women are the primary decision makers in all household purchases.

That companies like over 300 million new users of mothers is absolutely ginormous. And after I sold that already at 150 investments doing really well already pulled them with my current partner. And I was like, I like building companies like invest in companies. Let’s create a structure that allows me to do that.

And I never really set out to build a venture funds. And I think by virtue of being visible, I started being approached by potential investors and said, Hey, we would like exposure to where you guys are doing. Do you mind if we co-invest with you? And so 2016, we took our first investor LP for 50 million, one LP outside of our own capital.

Yeah, it’s again, what I be basically they’re people that had it, it’s a company called . They were a big telco in, in Norway. And they had backed my biggest competitor when I was running about locks and ultimately we fought a big war and we merged 51 for us, 49 for them. And by then we, all of this I’d like unwell.

They’d made like a billion dollars and they ended up owning a whole bunch of classified assets around the world. And they were like, Hey, we love you. You’ve also made us a lot, lots of money. We’d like to understand what’s going on in marketplaces in the U S to either bring it to our markets or defend against disruption.

And so it was really both strategic for them. And financial in 2018 we raise fund two and they’re like, Hey, if you want to bring other people on board, why not? And other people’s sorta approaching us. So we started getting like a lot of family offices that were being disrupted by tech and a lot of other strategics were interested in investing in the category.

And so we finished deploying that and that was a hundred, 225 million finished uploading that in July of 2021. And then we close fund three, which would be like three, 400 million with either amazing founders that I’ve worked with forever, like Reed Hoffman, or, whatever Kevin, Ryan, or the founder of Wayfair or these family offices were actually strategics interested in either buying or investing leader seizures in the companies move us.

So I guess w w. That was a long-winded way to answer your question. So my day job is running FJ labs. FJ labs is an a, a venture fund specializing in marketplaces. We invest in every geography in every category at every stage. But the focus is we really do angel investing at venture scale. We don’t lead, we don’t price.

We don’t take board seats. We decide after two, one hour meetings, whether we invest or not with full transparency, we tell them why we’re investing, why we’re not investing what we need to change for us to change your mind. And we try to be as Frey, founder, friendly as possible. So we’re not setting the terms we decided very quickly.

And we’re super prolific. To give you a sense of scale to date, we’ve invested in overheat 150 startups. Last year, we invested in 281 startups, so 180 new investments or 101 followups, and it’s a lot for a venture firm and it’s been going really well. We’ve had 265 exits and so far in a 45% realized I are.

So things are good. 

MPD: That’s great. Okay. So what’s the typical investment profile. Cause when you say angel investing at a venture scale, I get the angel investing part that your, the process is less rigorous it’s you’re looking at more strategic elements rather than doing your own diligence.

I get that nothing wrong with it. The question is when you say to venture scale, is that the reflection of the volume, the amount of capital you’re managing the volume, what is it? The check size? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah the angel investing in venture skills really because of the overall. Capital deployment. We’re deploying a hundred million a year, 150 million a year potentially, but this funds which is way more than typical angels deploy.

Now, the reason it’s still angel investing is writing small checks relative to the lead. We don’t want to compete with the top VCs in the world for allocation. We want to be their friends. In fact, most of the deals come from friendly VCs or sharing deals with us in return. Of course, we send them all of our deals.

And so our pre-seed check size is going to be like 200 K or C check size, like 300 K or eCheck size is 3 25 or beyond words is 7 25. So it’s fixed check sizes that we’ll take lots of philosophers available and they’re always small relative to the lead. And that’s why it’s kind of angel investing in venture scale.

But I’m more than happy to talk to you and walk you through the process of how we decide whether we invest or not. If you’ve 

MPD: teed it up, let’s do it. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. So actually, before I get to the process, I’ll walk me through the flow. These days, every week we get about 200 inbound deals and often many more than that.

And they come from three sources, a third comes from the friendly VCs and every eight to 12 weeks, we sit down the top hundred VCs in the world, covering every siege, every category of geography and we share deal flow. And it goes from everyone the amplifies or whatever first submitted to the pre-seed stage with the.

General catalyst, Bessemer Sequoia first walk in the middle, all the way to whatever the tigers at the leader stages, where we bring them all of our best seals. And in return Bain by to some of the deals where we have expertise. So mostly marketplaces about a third of the deal comes from fellow founders.

So at this point we’ve backed almost 2000 founders in the 835 companies. And they come back for their next company. They send us their friends. They’ve sent us their employees to becoming founders and about a third of the deals come in cold. And it actually, we review even the cold inbound deals and that 16% of the investments we’ve made have come from cold.

And some of the very best investments come from cold. So we get these seals they’re assigned randomly to one of the team members, unless someone says they want it. We we’re four partners, three associates, and one analysts. And we reviewed the deal we decide, is it appropriate or not for us or not?

And usually about. Three quarters of them are not there. They’re amazing, but they’re not for us. They’re like biotech, hardware, space SAC, and we don’t feel that we have appropriate expertise. So we review and we, the other 50, we take a one hour call and that one hour call, we try to assess four things and that’s actually the evaluation criteria.

Do we like the team? Do we like the business? Do we like the deal terms? And does it meet or pieces of where the world is heading? Now, let me double click on all four of these. Do we like the team. Every VC in the world will tell you. I only invest in extraordinary people. The thing is that’s extremely subjective.

What is an amazing team? And we’ve actually looked and thought through what it meant for founders to be very successful for us. It’s someone who is both a visionary and an execution machine. And that means someone who is extremely eloquent and as extraordinary communication skills. But that’s not enough because if you only have that, maybe you build a you build a very large company, but one that’s not profitable or it doesn’t scale, et cetera, but that’s, that is necessary.

It’s a necessary but insufficient condition. Because if you have an amazing, if you’re an amazing or rater or public speaker, you can attract better teams. You’re going to raise more money. You’re going to get better PR and you have better. But you also need to be able to execute. And we look at that, that we evaluated over the course of when our call is, how well do you understand the business, your hand?

How well do you understand you did economics? And we want you to be able to articulate even pre-launch, we want you to have done the lending page analysis and done a customer, cocky a customer acquisition cost analysis, and compare that to look at what the average order value in the industry is.

See what the net margin structure you’re expecting is. And you should be able to articulate that intelligently and the Venn diagram of people that are amazing storytellers and people that are amazing at execution is actually the intersection is very small and we want people that are both number two, Businesses that are compelling.

And for and so for many, some VCs, by the way, number one is enough. And if you’re pre-seed, pre-launch obviously will, this is the most relevant metric once you’re post-launch actually we do care, but the other three number two is, do we like the business? Which means for us, is the category large enough?

Or can it be larger enough through your execution and, or the unit economics is compelling and we are extraordinarily unit economic driven in marketplaces. And obviously this a little bit different if you’re in e-commerce is a little bit different if you’re in SAS. But we try to invest in businesses where you re.

You’re fully loaded customer acquisition costs on a net contribution margin basis after six months. And we’ll use three X your CAC after 18 months now. And ideally we don’t know what the LTV to CAC is because you have negative churn. In which case, who knows it’s 10 to one, 20 to one, et cetera.

And if your unit economics are underwater, which can happen, we want you to be able to articulate why with scale. They will automatically fix themselves. Maybe you’re in a food delivery business. And right now you’re doing one delivery per hour, you’re paying $15 an hour. Your delivery guy, your unit economics are under water, but the minute he does three deliveries an hour, it’s $5 a delivery.

And it works. Something like that. Like I don’t, it should not require every story. The multi-payer so align for you now, economics to work. And we really care about that because otherwise you may build a very large business that doesn’t make any money, which in the long run doesn’t really work out. Number three, what are the deal terms?

And we are. Yeah, nothing’s cheap and tough, but we want something that’s fair. In light of the size of the opportunity, the quality of the team, the traction that you have, 

MPD: what is fair? How do you think about that? 

Fabrice Grinda: So evaluations went up, especially in the late stage last year and, something I covered in one of my macro articles, but the median pre-seed the median valuations didn’t move up nearly as much as you might think.

And crypto falls a little bit of time that route, but then the median pre-seed for us until 2020 was like three to five pre raising one. And last year went up to six, seven, but not that much more. And so if you’re, pre-seed raising a 30, more likely than not, we’re not going to do it. The median seed used to be like re three raising at eight and nine pre and last year we went up to 12 and that’s still reasonable for us and the median a, you used to be, you’re raising seven at 22 and iRacing 10 at three.

And those are fair by our standard with relevant traction. So as your seed ran, we’re expecting you to have whatever, 150 key in GMV per month with a 10 50% take rate of the, a Rand, you’re doing 500 K in GMV and the B round, you’re doing 2 million GMV per month, more or less, it depends on the take rate you have, et cetera. Now there are exceptions, right? Like the rounds you’ve been reading about in the press are like, oh, they raise a $50 million series, a two 50 pre total, and these crazy. But yeah, we wouldn’t do those deals. There were amazing for the founders and the companies that actually I can make an argument.

Many of the companies that dies because the company, the founders raise too much money at too high, a price. They don’t grow into that valuation. And that kills the companies because of like anti-pollution provisions and it one more Sudan, Rams. It’s really one of the top reasons companies die is founders raising too much money at too high a price.

So we don’t do these deals. So the mean by the way is way higher than mean seed a and B is way higher than numbers I gave, but the media actually is not. And we’re so prolific. We have a good sense of where the market is. And so we stick to our with the exception that if you’re a returning founder for us, that has done well before we will back you, no matter what, no matter where you build, no matter the raise, et cetera, you don’t even need to take a call.

We’ll just send you the check. And so we have done a few crazy deals by that’s the reason it, also many of those deals are out of scope for us. Like we had the founders of a. Vettery, which was a labor marketplace then decided to go. And we sold a deco for a hundred million made of whatever, 8.5 extra money.

Everything was great. And then they went on to build Archer, which has an electric flying taxi company. And they’re like, we’re launching we’re pre-seed, 80 pre or whatever, a hundred pre. And we’re like, okay, here’s the check 

MPD: is those is the re-upping founders, your lumps, 

Fabrice Grinda: Ever increasing because we have 2000 founders, we backed, put it differently.

30% of the portfolio is non marketplace. And many of those are the re-upping founders which is a good sign that they have they’re coming back and they would have worked with us. But we also do like tools around marketplaces, et cetera. And we’re doing a lot of stuff. That’s like an interest things that interest us, which actually leads me to selection criteria.

Number four is your idea in line with our thesis of where the world is. And we are extraordinary thesis driven. We have a clear thesis on the future of finance, the future of food, the future of see the future of automotive, the future. And even within marketplaces, we have three core thesis on marketplaces that we look for and we want ideas that are in line with that.

And in a way we’re also mission driven, right? The reason I’m a VC, the reason I’m an investor is I, the world is facing a number of fundamental problems. We’re facing a climate crisis. The, we have a social inequality and inequality of opportunity or social injustice. We have a mental and physical we’ll be in crisis.

And the, I do not think that a. The political system is going to address any of these. And so it’s up to us as founders to use, to be solutionist to use technology, to find solutions to the world’s problems. And so it is mission driven from that perspective. I want to try to invest in companies, founders that are trying to address these fundamental problems.

And by the way, the bigger, the problem, the bigger, the economic opportunity, and it fits better in a for-profit model because this actually ends up being more scalable and more effective. And here we have it. If we’d love the team, we’d love the business. We’d love the deal terms. And we think that the ideas in library, their thesis, we invest and we can decide that in one hour.

MPD: That’s great. What’s the what are the reasons why a founder should choose to work with you guys? This is my underhand pay. 

Fabrice Grinda: And take a swim, the were former founders. So we actually know what it’s like to operate a business and we can talk extremely intelligently about the complexities of operating a business.

We’ve probably seen more marketplaces than anyone else either. And in addition to the fact that I run marketplace, I’ve run marketplaces for most of my life. And so when it comes to everything from like building liquidity, do you start with the supplier, the demand, should you go hyper-local or national or international?

W should your rake be 5% of 1% of 20% you’d have, how do you measure it? Let’s see supply demand. We’re probably more. Versed. Any other investors out there in this category in terms of being able to help you and last but not least, we’re in an ma because we don’t lead and we don’t price. And we have these amazing connections with all the other VCs, we will get you funded.

Like our superpower is we will get, if you need help raising your filling this round, we will do that for you. And more importantly, and most people do not need help raising a specific, the ran they’re typically talking to us about but if they, when they go to the a, when they go to the beach and they go to the sea, we will ensure them to whomever, like first of our grade lock and Driessen whomever is right for them.

We will make the intros and is extremely valuable for them because it directs the fundraising and makes it a lot simpler. We will give them feedback on like them, but back on the pitch on the process. And it’s also super efficient because you’d we have 850 companies in the portfolio and yet.

We’re often the most value added investor these founders have because we really focus on when to help them, we’ll do, we’ll help them right before they go fundraising the next ran and that’s the most valuable for them. 

MPD: Okay. So there, there is a implicit piece of this that I think is the most interesting.

It’s the sheer volume of your portfolio, right? There are a couple of firms out there that have huge volumes Techstars. My buddy, over at David phone number Techstars has a huge volume. He’s had a very different model than you. You have a huge volume. It’s not as common. Most firms are going out there and targeting 25 deals in a portfolio.

Is something there about what is your thinking around the optimal volume in a portfolio? 

Fabrice Grinda: First of all this is a reflection of my personality and not there’s no intelligent portfolio construction. So I actually have done the research. And what is the ideal portfolio construction by the portfolio of F J labs is completely built.

Bottom line. We meet people. If we’d like them, we invest. If we don’t like them, we don’t invest. And at the end of the year, the chips fall where they may, and it just so happens. Of course, there’s more seed deals and ideals, more aid deals and deals and CDLs, there’s more U S deals than European deals or European deals in India and Brazil deals.

And so if you look at our portfolio for a number of deals for of, we’re mostly seated a then a few B’s and very few season and not too many pre CD there. And then we’re 55% us Canada. We’re 25% Europe. We’re 10% Brazil, India. We’re like the rest of the world and really all over the world.

But it’s not by design. Now in terms of number of deals to answer your question specifically, is I diverged on portfolio construction. The I actually I think there are many problems to solve in the world and I like finding ways to address many of these because we choose not to compete with the major VCs.

We could actually not run a concentrated portfolio. So first of all, by design, if I wanted to invest in 30 companies, I would need to be a lead and I would need to ride like five, 10, $15 million trucks. Then the entire strategy. Of working with the other VCs and being their friend and other competitor becomes invalidated.

But more importantly, as a reflection of my personal philosophy, I just like, meeting lots of interesting people and being exposed to all these different areas. And I get I, now I have a great sense of what’s happening in like everything from climate to to automotive, to real estate.

And I think it’s fascinating there also the corollaries between these other industries, which are the marketplace dynamics so much closer to people suspect. I find that fascinating. And so it’s more a reflection of my personality, but that said there is data, but what is the correct portfolio size and angel listed and analysis of what your return profile looks like based on the number of deals you have.

And basically because venture follows a power law. The best deals return, do most of the returns you need to be in those best deals. And the best way to be in those best deals is essentially to be in every deal. And so the angel was study, which actually was published in peer reviewed and all that is the more diverse your professor of your portfolio, the higher your IRR and your returns that you should invest in all qualified.

And they have a definition of what qualified beans deals possible. Now, the reason most VCs are not built that way by the way, is actually driven by the LPs. So LPs heat that diversity. Because they see their jobs as themselves picking the VCs that are more specialized. So the LPs are like, oh, I’m going to have this fund.

That’s going to be my series, a B2B SAS company. I’m going to have this one. They’re going to be my series B DDC e-commerce in Europe, whatever. And they do, they’re like little funds of funds, strategy and fund that does all that for them. They really don’t like, because in a way it’s like the job they should be doing.

And so LPs are not super keen on that diversified strategy. And so it wouldn’t work for most, but it really works. And the benefit is over longer periods of time. We’re always going to be in the title. That’s solid before now and anyone fund life, by the way, we’re never going to be top decile because if you imagine a fund, eh, is hyper concentrated, they do 10 investments.

One of those is a hundred X. They’re going to be at a 10 X funds and they’re going to be topped us all, but they’re going to have massive variability, next fund they’re 10 may not hit and they made Richard money. And by the way, most VC funds actually don’t return cashflow cash money beyond the S and P the top Cortel does.

And the top quartile is actually highly correlated over, over fund life by most do not it our case. We I’ve been, if you include all of my history as an angel investor and but not as a founder, right? I’m not including my benefit. The equity I got into companies I’ve founded on the 270 exits we’ve had a 45% realize I are over 24 years either.

That’s I don’t know where that ranks. It has to be in the top 10%, maybe in the top 1% over that time, Peter. 

MPD: Given that you’re diversifying so much, is the core value add more sourcing or is it more deal selection? Because one of the things, theoretically, arguably the best portfolio is one investment, all the money in the world and the best company, the best returns, that’s it.

But the presumption there is that someone could be a good enough deal picker and get access to it. The core issue for a lot of VCs is they’re not great deal pickers. So how do you think about this? Is that the message to LPs like, Hey look, we’re good deal pickers, but we really don’t have to be because we play the game so broadly.

Is that part of the narrative for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: Not really. So we were actually would argue we’re very good deal pickers. We will buy often. We will not be in the top 0.1% of deals by the way, because we’re so sensitive on price. And we’re so sensitive on unit economics, either like we would have passed the Facebook, we would have fastened Google because neither of them had business models when they launched, nor could they articulate where those models, the, those those models were.

But we have a lot of singles and doubles and triples. So even though our portfolio is so broad, we’ve actually made money in over 50% of our exits which for a seed, mostly seed fund is extraordinary. Last year we had 41 exits, we made my name 24, we lost one in 17. And obviously you make a lot more on the 24th and you lose on the 17.

So I think we were very good pickers, number one, but two, obviously our deal flow is amazing because we built a brand as these founder friendly. Guys who’ve decided after you investor died, who were super helpful. And if you’re doing anything marketplace related, by the way, marketplace, let me define it pretty widely as if you’re building something that’s an intermediary between a seller of something and an a at a buyer or something.

And that thing could be anything. So to me, most of FinTech is the marketplace because, think of Clarita. It’s an intermediary between providers of capital. Typically the banks will give you the lines of credit and consumers that are borrowing. And many people wouldn’t think of it that way.

But to me, those dynamics, if you’re matching sellers, the buyers, regardless of the category it falls in the marketplace definition for us, which is obviously why we can invest at 300 marketplaces in a year. 

MPD: Okay. So there’s a little bit of learning here. I think you’re a bit of a pioneer in this type of volume for something outside of an accelerator incubator model.

Yeah. Whereas this model gone wrong that you had to correct. What did you learn along the way? That’s nuanced to not being a VC and not being an investor, but being a high volume VC or high volume investor, 

Fabrice Grinda: The way luck what’s I don’t know if it has gone wrong in the sense that we can typically.

First of all, I don’t think it’s necessarily easily replicable by most because we are in extraordinary privileged position to answer also part of the previous question where the deals come to us, right? Like most associates and analysts and most VC firms spend their time like networking and finding deals.

In our case, we’re like drinking at the fire hose of incoming deals and we’re reviewing the incoming deals and we would like to do more at boundaries, just we’re too busy, previewing main band. And we have the 200 Ben bands. We’d there’s. Yeah, we do miss seals as a result of that. So I D we are trying to change that to some extent, even though, so first of all, there’s the, part of the reason I can share my entire strategy online, including everything, the deal memos, the philosophy, et cetera, is even if you had all of it in your mind would encode it, even though probably hard to do without the 24 years of like ad bats of seeing 5,000 companies a year without a deal flow.

So I really replicable now where it’s gone wrong. Yep. Sorry. 

MPD: And as I say, FJ labs is a 

Fabrice Grinda: marketplace. Yes, we are our marketplace. Absolutely. We’re matching founders with money, from our LPs. And by the way, our LPs I’m the largest LP in the fund, right? Like about 450 million we’ve deployed to date, over a hundred million of that is my own money.

Maybe one 50. I actually, haven’t tried to look at it too closely because this started as a frankly personal investments for my partner. I said myself again, the accidental VC thing. One more thing. I know, I didn’t answer the question. One more thing we do very differently by the way is the following.

So we. We don’t reserve capital for follow-on. So we’ll invest that of whatever fund is currently active. The follow-ons. So we tell our, because we don’t always follow on we’ll evaluate follow-ons as though they were new investments, knowing what we know now, the company of the team would the terms, would we invest?

And often the answer is we love the team. We’d love the company, but the valuation is insane, so we’re not taking our Paratas. And so we’re, we’ve been following on and maybe 33% of the deals. But as a result, it doesn’t make sense to reserve capital fellows in a fund. So we do it in other funds, which leads me to the issues in a way we face, right?

Like the problems we face. As we have had a really hard time, much harder than ever to expected raising capital other than the capital that keep to us automatically. So we’ve had these LPs that are like friends. They’re like, here’s a check, they know 

MPD: you were, I know your success, 

Fabrice Grinda: those exactly, or strategics that we’ve worked with from across many years who want to exposure where we do or family offices.

And so there, the capital’s come, but pitching institutional investors has been really so far. We don’t have a single institutional investment partner differently. They don’t love. Anything about what I just described the hyper diversification, because they feel that in a way it’s their job to find different funds that cover different areas and hyper diversification number of deals.

They don’t like that. We’re multi-stage, they don’t like that real multi geography. They don’t like that. The follow on strategy is in whatever fund is currently active in which versus, having capital reserve followings in the original funds. And so all of that. And so it’s been, it’s taken way more time to raise capital than I would have liked.

And also as a result, we’re proudly a much smaller fund that we should be. So right now, we’ve closed for student 10 million of the new fund and you find. It’s three to 500 million, five, really a hard cap. I would like to hit it, there’ll be at least 300 million and it’s been seven months.

It’s mostly the existing investors. Re-upping yeah, there are new investors like founders that we’ve backed that have excess exited that are investing in it, et cetera. But again, we have, don’t have a single institutional investor in the fund because of all the reasons I, and I’d like to change that because the reality is we should probably, we could be a billion dollar fund with no problem.

Despite the not leading, not pricing strategy with given the volume we have if you do, if I do intelligent portfolio structured, like what is the maximum size I can deploy at pre-seed without leading to 25 K or so maximum check size, I could deploy at seed without leading it’s four 50 at AA could probably write a million.

That’d be, I could probably write 2 million and let’s see. It could be right, probably right. 5 million and up to 10 million in like the pre IPO Rams. And so if you look at all the deals last year, all the allocations we had, we could have deployed 350 million. And yet we didn’t have that level of capital.

And so we only deploy a hundred million. So what we’ve done to not run out of money after a year because our LP base is not such that I can actually. Say, oh, instead of three years, we it’s just one year and now we are re-upping they don’t want that is at nor could I, because I’m the biggest art piece.

It’s also driven by my personal cashflow. And so what we did instead is we men decrease her check sizes to not run out of capital. So currently, as I said, our HX size is 3 25 K. It could be a million or beach, X size is 7 25. It could be two and her and frankly, DHX license. So the 25 K and could be 10.

And so that’s been an issue I’m trying to address it and we’ll see if we were successful in the future now, in terms of underlying performance and access to deals, et cetera, Matt, I think B hasn’t been too much of an issue, I guess the other issue, it’s something we’ve learned as we’ve had to build a very big ops team.

The team we’re 30. Which is a lot of people are most people 

MPD: doing, cause it sounds like 10 or so those are investment professionals. What do they, yeah, 

Fabrice Grinda: so yeah. So four partners, three associates. Why now? So eight investment professionals we have two but then we have a big back office team or like the head of operations, the CFO the lawyer, the, all the accountants and the that are in the back office team.

And then we have all the support team for them. So when 

MPD: you say 200 deals a year, you mean 200 pounds of paperwork? 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Let’s do a lot to do. Yeah. Everything, stock, purchase agreements, follow ons, legal approvals, exit, there’s infinite back office work to do. And actually one more thing we haven’t done is we’re currently not gap dot a gap accounting, because like, how do you do gap accounting on.

800 startups and we don’t even, we want to be the founder friendly guys and so doing an evaluation of each company in the portfolio when they’re like seed is a massive exercise that most, firms, which is another reason we haven’t been able raised institutional money. And maybe we need to have bite the bullet and do it.

In fact, we’re currently talking to Mike CBO and YC and, people like that, like how do you guys do it? And we probably need to buy that bullet at some point. But yeah it’s a lot of the issues that like you don’t think about when you’re dealing, when we’re lower volume from, 

MPD: okay, now you guys are the marketplace experts, and that’s very clear what are three rules of thumb that marketplace entrepreneurs listen to this need to know the things that are like, Hey, these are the baseline pro tips, right?

Fabrice Grinda: When you’re building your marketplace and you have your chicken neck problem the. Place to start is with supply because the sellers on the platform are financially motivated to be on the platform. And I would go to them and set said, low expectation and saying, Hey, we’re launching this. We’re free to launch at the beginning.

And we take just a rake, a B in there, but here’s the key. And here’s the pro tip. It’s easy to have infinite supply, but if you’re drown your marketplace and infinite supply and you’d have demand for it, they’re all going to turn. They’re not going to be engaged. So when you launch, you curate the very best supply for it in one vertical, in one category, maybe even in one geography, like in one zip code, and then you find demand for that.

And first of all, there are the very best. So you make sure they’re engaged. You make sure they understand where the product is. You understand what their needs. Then you find demand for them, whatever way it is. It could be sales driven. It could be marketing, it could be Google, it could be Facebook. And by the way, I actually like paid marketing to work because that means it’s scalable kind of infinitely you find demand and what you wanted to get to for that supply.

And again, very limited supply, highly curated. You want to represent. If it’s an item for sale, you want the probability of the item for sale to be about 20, 25%. That’s when you have pretty good liquidity, if it’s a services business, you want to represent at least 20% of the revenues of that provider.

And then once you have that at that scale, then you scale the supply up one more like whether it’s in the same zip code or gee sitter, adjacent category, and then you match. So you always, you start with supply, you bring them in and then you scale both always in parallel. A problem is it’s so easy to get supplied that you could launch.

I could launch a locksmith marketplace and put every lots within New York on it, but then you have no demand for it. And so the supply is going to churn. There’s gonna be no engagement and the users, we awful, et cetera. So doing that is, is key. So that’s I guess somebody human mind or like magic trick number one, magic trick.

Number two is, as you start thinking about. How do I monetize? How much do I charge? Who do I charge? And what is the correct percentages? Because you see marketplaces like stock photography, marketplaces that takes 75%. And then you have some B2B marketplaces where it’s essentially 0% rate or 0.1% because of extreme price sensitivity.

And so the correct way to assess that is you look at the less toxicity of supply and the less, the city of demands and you take your rake on the more and elastic part of the curve. And the more elastic it is, the higher the rake is that turns out that in most cases you can take 10 to 20% from the supply side, but it’s not a hardest at roll.

It really depends on how fragmented your supply and demand is. And by the way, the more fragmented it is, the better it is for you as the marketplace, right? If you’re in a market where there’s three or four suppliers and three or four consumers, You’re probably not a marketplace. You’re probably a distributor.

And your ability to price and take margin is going to be very limited. And that’s why I be very careful of playing in like highly concentrated industries. It happened to me and not really a market place, but I was I ran a company that was selling ringtones to the mobile operators.

And in the early days it was okay. But like between 2001, when I launched in 2005 and my mom, I sold in 2004, but 2005, when I left all the operators, consolidated merge with each other, like singular with, at and T Verizon with they’ll remember whom I’ll be like. And also when we went from. 50 customers.

So four and on the music come to a five and on the music company side, they all merge with each other like BMG and whatever, and EMI and whomever. And they also went from like many to three or four. And so all of a sudden there were four and five and it wasn’t an issue until we had 50 million in annual revenues.

But the minute we hit 50 million annual revenues, we started being seen by the VP level at these companies. And they started seeing us in their P and L and they started squeezing and squeezing. So in 2004, with my company, we did 50 million in revenues and 4 million in profits. In 2005, we did 200 million revenues and seven and eight in profits because they basically divided by our margin by three.

And so that’s not a marketplace, you’re a distributor, you’re a facilitator, but it’s not a proper marketplace. 

MPD: Okay. So now you guys do more than invested FJ labs. I know this is evolving. You guys have been a studio, right? You’ve been building companies. You don’t talk about what you guys do when the method for it.

Fabrice Grinda: Sure. The reason we were a studio is really, I say, bang. It’s what do I like to do? I like to build companies. I could invest in companies. I love that. And so every year we’d be coming up with ideas and it was like, try to build them either personally and go run them, which I did for a few of them or with entrepreneurs and residences.

And we created through happenstance, a program that ended up being successful. So what happened is. I don’t even remember the year, maybe 2010 or 2011. This young founder reach out to me and he’s Hey, I’m McKinsey, Harvard business school. I am I’m at HBS right now, but I’ve raise 500 K and trying to build this company.

And Eddie kept harassing me. The thing is I was running billing oil, super busy writing a relaxer. I’d like, so that 10,000 employees in 30 countries, and I was getting emails like that, like dozens every week. So I ignored him and ignored them. And one day he’s Hey, I’m at the door of your office, can we meet?

And I’m like, okay, maybe I’ll beat him. Maybe I’ll leave. Let me be. And he was building like some sort of chat roulette for competitor, and I’m like, terrible idea. Won’t work return the money to your investors, call it a day and. Cultural back the next day. He’s oh, thank you for the radical honesty and candor to when I’ve been like honest with me.

I talked to my investors, I offered to return the money and they said, no, let’s find an idea. And another idea. So now why don’t you and I look on fighting an idea together. I’d have I’d like to know the last thing I want to have time. And I kept saying, no, I kept saying no. Then he emailed me a check for $5,000.

He’s I’m going to pay you $5,000 a month to work for you. And I’m like a fight. Keep your money. Yeah. You’re super motivated clearly. Let’s let’s see if we can do this. And in a way it it was useful because it forced me. The first thing I made him do is help me filter my inbound deal flow.

And at that time it was 200 a week. It was like 40 a week. And I was like, can I teach someone else? Might Euro six K I could have fight how to evaluate a team, how to validate if the business attractive, what my thesis is what appropriate deal terms are. And can I have him, do that for me and not pass the next Uber and turns out that while he was useful, because it forced me to structure my thinking on what my Euro six were and teach them to him.

And once he started seeing all the deal flow, he started getting ideas, sorta applying the same criteria to his own ideas. And then we started 50 ideas then became 10, then five and two, then one, then we pivoted and that company became adore me and adore me is a laundry DDC, commerce subscription company, both econ not which today is I don’t know, over 200 million revenues, I don’t know, 20 million tickets.

It might be much more than that, but I’d like at least that and crushing it. And the last thing he did. And I told them too, it was like, find me your replacement. And so we started a program where we would go to the first year of business school at Harvard MIT, Wharton, Columbia, Stanford, we’d say, Hey, you’re S you’re going to join us.

Full-time during the summer between your first and second year, half the summer, you’re going to be taught venture capital. Not because we want you to be VCs, but because we want you to see where the ideas are, how to pitch how to write a great effective deck and keep your pulse on the fingers of the market, your fingers on the pulse of the market.

And number two, pap the summer, you’re going to be in the company we’re currently trying to build. So you understand what it’s like to be an early stage founder, that profile. So the reason we took these schools by the way, even. On average, we’d rather have people that don’t go to business school.

It’s frankly, it’s just an easy filtering mechanism. And, but we only wanted people who wanted to be founders. And most of them, the profile was they were product managers or city managers of one of the larger marketplaces, like Instacart or Uber or or Airbnb. And they want to now go and do it on their own.

And and there were an HBS like looking for ideas and maybe improving their skills that like finance, something like that. So they join us for the summer during their second year they’re part-time 15, 20 hours a week. Mostly helping us filter inbound deal flow. And then when we graduate.

They become full-time EIRs meaning we pay them. I don’t know where the salary was, like maybe 135 K years. I’m like that to look for ideas with us, they look for their own ideas and we meet like on a weekly basis to iterate. Now, also every twice a year, we bring the entire team investment team, everyone like in the team together once in February and once in August and July, usually my house interest in kaikos who are in Canada.

And we have to all come up with ideas that don’t exist in the world of tech that should and out of these. And we usually come up with like a hundred, a pop or 150 up opposite, two to 300 ideas a year of which they can actually go and go deeper and pick some of these et cetera. And we typically would take two weeks.

I bet there’d be some churn because some people decided to build companies that were not, for us, some people decided they don’t want to be founders after all, et cetera. And we ended up building a lot of companies like that. We some successful some not so much. So we built a company called BP, which should have been Carvana, raise 150 million and was worth 700 million in like in famously blew up.

We, the main mission is we try to have the founders fail fast. So we try to build a company. We build a company called punch show, which is like an entrenched company and it didn’t grow big enough. And so we decide close it, but then we’ve had a lot of companies that are really doing well. So we’re in Rebag, which is a handbag marketplace.

I think they’re going to do 200 million of revenues this year and I’m like that that is that the founder is amazing. We were in properly, which is a Zillow Trulia meets compass meets a open door for Canada. Absolutely crushing it. Last round was like, multi hundred billion dollar valuation we’re investors 

MPD: in that with you great company.

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. So I’m chairman of that one and unsure is one of the best a EIRs we’ve ever had also we’re the best founders we’ve ever had. The team is amazing. We’re in Mundey, which is a trade finance company between Mexico and the us helping us and B some Mexico export of the U S and there, they grew from zero to like tens of millions and originations in a year and a half.

Like my, my, I know that it sends really definitely over 10 million might be over 20 million now. We’re in like Seafair, a marketplace for helping shipping companies find seafarers, a work rise for shipping where we’re in a umami card versus vertical. And grocer in the Asian category, we’ve created Milko, which is a kind of Shopify for restaurants, helping people build digital brands in food and helping them operate restaurants operate better and more effectively.

Many of these that actually I ran one of them for a while, actually to 2014, 2015, I built a mobile classified site in the U S called Salud, which I then merged with wallop pop. I ran Walla pop. USAA was true, but a wallet pop. And then we merged that with let go, which now of course has merged with offer up.

So now it’s offer up and that’s a multi-billionaire company, which I ran in 20 14, 20 15. And the CTO model is as follows. Very different, very generous because we do very few. We, you come in, we pay you 135 K until you find idea, once you find the idea we put in the first seven 50. With 65% of the capital going to the team, 35% to us.

And then we commit the next 2 million at either 10 million valuation or market, if you can get better terms but we have the right invest 2 million in your next round. And and so the T it’s not at all, like some of the other studios out there where the teams get five, 10, 50%, or in our case, they started at 65% and actually real capital, right?

Like you guys have got 2.7, 5 million. So if you don’t want to go to market for the next first two years, you don’t really need to. And that model’s really worked well. Intrusive, like it’s fine. We build amazing companies. The problem is it’s time consuming and my time is not scalable. I’m still, I’m on the board of and these companies it’s the opposite model.

We’re coming up with the ideas. And often I even rent product like Rebag and lofty. I was like, I went to Ukraine and Romania and I hired the team. I re I was like scrum master. I was like, I was actually writing the stories and managing the teams. I was working day and night for them for many years.

And now I’m still on the board of like most of them ones I just mentioned. And so that model, it’s amazing. But it’s just too time consuming. And so putting that on hold for now, but we still have two or three more to build. We still have two more to build as we speak, despite the fact that we’re not recruiting a new batch and in 20, 22 

MPD: only so much for breeze.

That’s a lot of sounds like you’re spread pretty thin if you’re doing. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yeah. Yeah. Plus we have a SPAC plus the a week plus I do a lot of stuff in crypto, independently. What we do at FJ yadda I’m spread too thin as is. And so my current what I’d like to find a way to do while I. The reason I built the team to 31 is actually to do all the, a lot of the stuff I don’t like to do, which the good news is that the problem is when you’re going to something, the world sends you, the universe sends you more of that.

And so the temptation of course is to do more and more. But I need to find a way to be more scalable. And I think putting aside started the studio to spite of how much fun it is, eh, and just focusing on the venture side because it’s more scalable and POS probably more useful for humanity in the long run, but in terms of like placing bets in so many categories to try to address it, all the world’s problems is broadly a better allocation of time.

And I can tell 

MPD: you’re inspired by it. Yeah. You’ve had a lot of success. I think that’s safe to say maybe an understatement of the day. Did you grow up. 

Fabrice Grinda: Yes and no is the, which is a weird answer. My great grandmother so I greet great grandmother in the late 18 hundreds inherited a hotel from when her husband passed away.

And instead of doing the done thing and and marrying again, she had decided to just take over the hotel, which was like fully embedded. She turned it around, made it super profitable, then bought another one. Then another one, she ended up owning all of the luxury hotels in nice owning half of the residential real estate of niece, basically becoming the wealthiest thought.

And if not the wealthiest, one of the wealthiest women in the world in the late 18 hundreds She gave it all to, she had multiple children, she gave it all to, or oldest Augustus who was actually an effective manager and didn’t lose any of it, but a force by the time. But he didn’t do the same thing.

And by the time. It’s kissed took over. It was split between all of them and they all spent basically the new VAR reach. All they want to do is hang out with the queen of England and the prince of Monaco. And by the time of my grandparents‘ generation, by the time my parents came along, there was basically nothing left.

And so the, I imagine a generation that had been brought up with the idea that they were going to be wealthy, never need to work. It’s the silver spoon in their math, and yet didn’t have anything already be to show for it. And so my father had started from scratch. So when w we were living, the four of them.

Brother and I have two brothers, so I’d like when we started at my brother and my parents, like in a studio apartment and he started working for this French billionaire as an endless, and they’re a leveraged buyout firm in the seventies. And so we came from, even though we had come from family that had a lot of money by the time my parents level, there was nothing left.

And so we started with nothing. I went to public school but in 1989 when I was 14 my father’s father was became grossly of the ranks. We can to CEO of the company that that, that guide bought through an LPO. And they sold it for whatever, like a billion dollars. I think my dad had a 5% of it in stock options.

And it’s like the pre not venture capital per se, but like a similar model and overnight became wealthy. And actually you retired at the age of 41, which I think was a huge mistake. But I guess it didn’t live through it because I, at that point I’d already, I was living with my grandmother and niece and then I’d left for college and probably out of ego.

I decided I didn’t want to take any require, ask for any help. So I paid for college. Most of them, I saw, for my living expenses myself. So I had to work. Like I went to Princeton and when I was 17, but I’d like to work four jobs plus build my first company to pay for it, et cetera. Whereas probably the easier thing would have been asked my parents for money.

So because at that point of time we did have money. Cause that was two years after my father had become wealthy. But because I had left kind of my parents, I was living with my grandmother. I also didn’t really notice a shift. And so I came from an upper-class family that was probably middle-class in income.

But that rose through the ranks. And then all of a sudden became wealthy at the. A 50 for me by my parents. My parents are getting, 

MPD: but from a life experience standpoint, it sounds like you had more modest sensibilities as a kid than maybe generations before you what’s. How has money changed your life now because you’ve had tremendous success?

I know that is challenging for a lot of entrepreneurs who are going through these cycles. What have been the ups and downs of this evolution for you? 

Fabrice Grinda: I don’t know first of all, as a kid, I was just built differently from everyone else in my family. I was like really serious, like until post-college I was like Shelton, for me it was all about like intellectual pursuits and getting a pluses and skipping all the grades and winning the Olympiads.

And I was completely antisocial not at all a good public speaker or. Just different. Like I cared about like studying economics and philosophy and getting a pluses and nothing else and map like no interest outside of that. And no time for anyone, including by the way, my family, I was extremely arrogant and condescending as a kid of you guys are not smart enough and worthy enough of my time and attention, including my parents, by the way, I was like, so it’s funny because in a way I was the best kid ever, like always a plus is going to bed early, not doing anything bad, et cetera, but it was also.

At difficult kid in the sense that I’d like, didn’t provide much love. It was like, yeah, you guys are not smart enough for me. Leave me be I’ve learned. And it’s interesting because I have come to value people, I think as you’ve you put the emphasis and value and things you were really good at.

And of course that I was really good at being smart and not so good at anything else. And so of course that was my prison by which to value the world. And as you become older and also more confident and successful, you’re also realize there’s so many ways to be and to live. And it’s not my ways a personal value judgment, but there are many other ways that are absolutely amazing.

That to answer your question directly it’s a little bit of a non-sequitur know. So I became wealthy and in 2004, I sold a zingy for $80 million and I own 53% of the company. So I made $43 million net of tax. It was like 26.5. And what’s interesting is in a way it didn’t change anything.

I still lived in a studio apartment for a few more years. I think the big purchase of that time, it was the next box of TV and two tennis rackets mostly driven by how busy I was. Like we were growing, we grew from 15 million in revenue. So for it’s two hundred and two oh five. I can moving offices every four months and thinking we re-did that.

And like it kept, we kept getting bigger and bigger offices and hiring. So it didn’t really hit me completely. What’s interesting is my first company where I built in 98, 99, like my company on paper is worth hundreds of millions and that it comes so easily that I didn’t realize how much money that was like at 28.

I started my bath company at 23 is like an eBay of Europe. We had a buyout offer. 300 million at 40% a company, I was going to make $120 million. And again I’m like, man, of course everyone makes money to me. Other than that, it’s just a bubble. Everything seemed easy. I did not realize how, because you, 23, you don’t know any better.

And also I never really lacked for money. And also I never really, I never money was never an objective. It’s like a means. It’s not even a Misa net. I want to be a tech founder. That’s all I wanted to be. And whether or not I was going to be financially successful was irrelevant, which is why, by the way, in 2006, After the bubble bursts and, I made I went from hero to zero basically, and was bankrupt in 2001.

Then I realized maybe I should have taken a secondary for a couple of million, which is people will offer it. And I’d be like, nah, a couple billion who need, I want to be Bebe. The founder of there’s all in. I don’t want to take money off the table, et cetera. I’d like a more to prove I want to be the ideal entrepreneur.

And of course for me, I thought like a couple of millions, nothing. It forced at that point, I was thinking that having literally nothing in my bank account that I realized, oh shit, no money is really hard to make. It’s very easy to lose. It’s very hard to make. But in 2001, when I would have built zingy.

This internet thing is it’s dead. It’s small. It’s not big and no big deal. At the end of the day, I didn’t do this for the money. I did this to be, I wanted to create something and nothing. I’d love tech. So I’m going to build a new company. It’s probably not going to be big and it doesn’t matter. Now, lo and behold, it turns out I made sure that it wasn’t dead.

Despite every company had got on web van Petlock com MCI work on everyone had got under. And at that point in time and VC soft investing, but came back and B was financially successful. Now what has done for me since is I value experiences and I value my time. And so what I use the money for is I have a, I have a Butler or a an estate manager and who’s also my chef and does all of the offline things that I don’t like to do, so I don’t cook. I don’t clean. I et cetera. I have a virtual assistant in the Philippines and managers of my entire life. I. I go heli skiing, which is extraordinary, expensive, by the way for fun. Now I don’t own any physical goods per CyberKnife. I have a house in Turks. I have a house and I have a department, New York avenue.

I have a house in Revelstoke, but I don’t have, yeah. I really have a sense of cars or clothing and luxury, et cetera, all those things. I don’t think mattered too much for me. I think physical goods are anchors. But for me it’s more using the financial success I’ve had as a means of buying Experiences.

I love helping people around me and I give millions a year, but beyond giving millions a year to charity, I actually give millions a year to my friends as a means of changing their lives and making the, making a difference on the day to day of their life. And it’s a bit non-traditional other way.

But these are people I’ve known for 20, 30 years. And so I tell them, don’t expect it to be recurring. It just happens when I have an exited where I feel you’re in need and it’s meaningful for them. And I don’t think it impacts our relationship. So I think it’s been an amazing tool and it’s also been amazing to have freedom.

Like my dream, for instance, in and FJ labs is actually not to have external investors. If it’s the maximum I can invest with my current strategy is 300 million a year. If I have 300 million a year of I owed money to deploy, I would do that and not have any external capital. That would be way easier. That would remove the part of my life that I don’t like of dealing with LPs and fundraising and like and whatever, a gap, accounting and sec registration and all that stuff.

I would do that in a heartbeat. Financial success is really a means of free personal freedom to do what you want. When you want to have the experiences you want to have and to help the people around you. 

MPD: Was there a moment when you felt like you got your sea legs with being wealthy, where it went from, figuring out what that meant for you to, okay.

I got it. I know my framework for how I want to use money to have impact my friends, my personal life, et cetera. 

Fabrice Grinda: Eh, happened automatic over time automatically like the. I soon as I add capital, I started investing in startups. So I really stayed all by angel investing in 2005 and I knew I wanted to deploy capital into.

To back the, my friends were building companies and to help them realize their dreams and to solve the problems in the world. So that immediately came to me in terms of helping my friends did that leader, but I realized how, what I started considering like a little capital could change.

It could make a difference in the lives of my friends, a friend of mine, she was running a dermatology clinic in New York and she was making whatever a half a million a year. And she decided to said to go run a cancer research, live at Harvard and make like whatever, a hundred K a year. Profound difference in her income yet for the world.

I thought I was like a massive net positive contribution, but as a result, she could no longer afford like the down payment or a house in Boston. So I paid that for her and I think it’s the right thing for you and your husband and your kids to be able to love and amazing place. So you can actually do research this meeting folder of the world and that sort of happened.

Little by little over time. No, I’m not sure there was ever like a, oh, this is a correct strategy. Very rapidly. What I did realize is I don’t, I never followed traditional wealth management advice. You go to these wealth managers or like Goldman or whatever, and they’re like, oh, you should have 50, 60% equities and 30% bonds and blah, blah, blah, like crazy.

None of that ever made any sense to me, I have a complete barbell portfolio where it’s like a 10% of cash because you want optionality of being able to take advantage of things in crises, 10%, crypto, 10% public Sox of the things that have gone public in my portfolio that I still like and old 10% of real estate that’s really consumption.

And then everything else is like early stage Texas tech stuff. A completely barbell works really well. I realized it was much better at doing that. And ma which is essentially the same thing as like running FJ labs. If your labs are in a ways, a family office, and good on that front. And I made many mistakes.

Like I, I lost in a way millions dollars and Billy’s trying to buy a big chunk of the country to preserve the rainforest, which, taught me something about a rule of law. I lost millions dollars in Dominican Republic doing something at a much smaller scale, instead of hundreds of thousands of acres doing it with 165 acres, wanting to build a big community where I would bring founders and spiritual leaders and and artists to just create and be there with no business model, but like everyone from the mayor to the minister of tourism and environment, all wanted bribes and create an environment that was all super tenable.

So lost millions of dollars. Pursuing, if you, these houses, I made many mistakes along the way, but in general, at the end of the day, my true north star of help those around you. Help the world through, in my case, second Vaseline. So like finding solutions, the world’s problems, and like by yourself and living the life you want to lead has been amazing.

By the way, through that process, I did a lot of iteration in 2013. I’d actually 2012. I gave almost all my physical possessions to charity. I went down to 50 items that fit in a carry on my backpack and my tennis bag. And I went cap surfing and France couches for a year that I went like an Airbnb.

I lived in Airbnbs and hotels for three years beyond that all around the world. Like making sure I allocate time to invest in my friends and friendship and my friendships and my family in a way I’d never done that before. 

MPD: And why did you need to do that? Just cause the material items were owning you at some level.

Was that the thinking, did you have all the goods to do that? To have related 

Fabrice Grinda: time allocation? If you have like at a country house in Bedford and I would go and it was amazing, right? Like I, it was huge and we played paintball there and like it organized like parties. We played video games the way they gave me a room, et cetera.

But at the end of the day I went there because I was paying so much for it, which is the wrong reason to use something. The minute I didn’t have an apartment, the minute I didn’t have a house, I was like, okay, dad, I have infinite freedom and flexibility. Where do I want to be? Who is it that I want to be spending time with?

And so being, when you have a default, you go to that default, if you remove the default option, you can be way more thoughtful about what it is you really want to do, who it is, what it is you really want to hang out with. And the fundamental problem I was trying to solve for is. As you get older as your friends.

And I start getting married, having kids jobs, et cetera. I like the quality of the tea. The texture of your friendships, like changes when you’re in college, you’re remaking the world. You’re starting to you’re seeing your friends seven days a week. Even at McKinsey, I would see my friends date many days.

Many hours every week. And all of a sudden it would came at like the biographical update. I, we see you once every six weeks. And at that point is what happened to your husband and your work, et cetera, and your kids since then? And it’s fine, but it’s not the reason that we became friends. We became friends because there was a more fundamental connection and perspective and beliefs of some of the world and extraordinary conversations.

And I wanted to rekindle that in, in my thirties, in a eighties, it seemed to have gone away between the age of 25 and whatever 35. And I’m like, there must be a way to change it. And others were not making the adjustments to their little. Why don’t I adjust my life to make it happen. And now there are many false starts, right?

Like the couch surfing was a total failure because of course it was Dean and cab. The fact that I was at a position in their life and they saw, I’d like to bring skids to school and go to work, et cetera. The Airbnb thing worked really well until her BB was made illegal. It may most of the major cities and like across New York, all the high-end inventory to spirit then they will tell us all became full.

So I was like moving hotels every four days. So that’s actually the reason I ended up buying an apartment in New York. I was very happy living in like billionaires apartments, for a month, at a time in every neighborhood in New York, hosting dinner parties there. But once I had to live at hotels and move a tell, remember five days, I’m like, okay, that’s not viable.

And I couldn’t find high-end re rental inventory. I liked, so I bought a place, but. I guess people don’t put enough iteration and design and thought into their lives. They follow the default, whereas you can throw stuff on the wall and see what sex and see what sticks for you, right? Like people are built differently and what they want to do and how they want to lead their lives.

And they followed the, I guess thing, the default path way too much. Like my life is very non-traditional in general. I do a month in New York than a month intrusive kaikos I’ll do a month in Canada. Because New York and is socially artistically, professionally extraordinary intense.

And if you’re doing, you’re not thinking, and then I come to church and I’m working during the day. I’m in trucks right now and we’re doing this call and I have 12 calls today, but I’ll meditate. I’ll go, kitesurf, I’ll play tennis. And I’ll take the time to read and write and think and be reflective and rebuild my batteries.

And then most people don’t necessarily think through what is right for them in light of their energy level, personality, et cetera. And so that iterative design is alive, made it alive by. 

MPD: I love all that. You mentioned through there that you do a lot of charity, which I think is great. I particularly was interested in the buying a Britain forest or attempts to do taking it that further.

I would love to hear your take on impact, right? Is there a cause that you’re passionate about or some particular topic? Let me put it a different way, because my favorite way to ask this question, if you were king now, president king, what is one thing you would change? 

Fabrice Grinda: So I’m going to give the hyper rational answer to that.

Please, if you look at all the policies you could do in the U S and which ones would actually impact wellbeing for people the most it’s actually, there’s one thing that has much larger impact on personal outcome than everything else. And in the U S social mobility as a client, it used to be the 95% of people made more money than their parents.

Now it’s about 50% since people born since 1982. And the main reason for that is that the top cities are the ones where all the jobs created for all the opportunities are, have become unaffordable. And the reason there aren’t affordable is we’ve passed extraordinarily idiotic, zoning and landscaping laws.

And at that, that mean that you cannot build as easily as you should be able to. And there’s a lot of reasons for that. If your current owner restricting supply means your thing your homes increasing value dramatically. But it’s extremely bad for like social mobility economic diversity.

And so you look at San Francisco, 80% of the city is zoned. Apartments are illegal. You can not have more than two story buildings. And as a result, you have the cities become extremely unaffordable. So if I could change one, one thing is essentially. Remove all air rights, all essentially zoning and construction regulation.

Other than a few, see if you’re not going to be building over whatever central park, but like air rights and city and your city make no sense. Like having these buildings that are less than a hundred year olds old, be like landmark that you can’t build over them makes no sense. You should be able to build up as much as you can.

And we should have unlimited supply. And of course, there’ll be a lag of eight years or 10 years before things get built and prices adjust. But at that actually solves affordable housing. And when you solve affordable housing, you recreate mobility and your lack of people to get the best jobs. And this is what changes the outcome more than anything else.

Now that’s not a something I’m investing in any way, shape or form or. Because there’s crazy nimbyism and political forces against it. And it’s, it has to be in the U S the rules are like literally like neighborhood by neighborhood. And it’s so painful. So I, as king, I would do that. That is not where I keep my claim to.

Now I’ve not put a lot of thought into charity. That first of all, what I do at the charity level, it is way more personal and directed will have a much larger impact on the lives of the people I help, but it’s much more smaller scale. Like in the Dominican Republic, I helps pay for the education of 10,000 kids from K through 12.

It’s amazing for these kids. So it changes their life outcomes, dramatically program. 

MPD: You do that through, or you just set that up. 

Fabrice Grinda: No, it’s the dream project that I was funding. And I, but I helped them beyond that. I helped, I built like a tech center where they could learn programming and to have access to computers and internet and find jobs, et cetera.

I fund something called the university of the people, which is helping non low-income people basically get us degrees, especially in things like computer science. And there are people from like our over a hundred nations and they often end up getting jobs at Google, Facebook, et cetera.

So it’s been mostly right education, helping people be able to increase their out their life outcomes through adhesion often in the communities where I was living, I lived in the Dr for largest spend, like four or five months a year from 2012 to 2019 2018, the men I’ve done a lot of that now, separately I’ve dragged given directly.

Contributions to many of my friends and like dozens of them, right? And we’re talking millions and millions of dollars, it’s life-changing for them, but I don’t larger scale. All of that is dwarfed from a social and economic impact by what I do. And as a tech investor, right? Like my tech investments of hundreds and hundreds of companies, I think ultimately will change the lives of billions of people.

And yeah, they’re for profit, but there’s a fundamental social motivation for them. And I think they will dwarf anything I do on the direct investment and the direct shadow charity frame. That’s why most of my personal capital is actually allocated to investing technology, to solve the world’s problems.

And I think we will, by the way, I’m extremely optimistic on how we’re gonna address climate change, inequality of opportunity, et cetera. 

MPD: It’s been great having you on. Thank you so much for doing this. 

Fabrice Grinda: Thank you for having me

MPD: every time I talked to Fabrice, I feel a little bit smarter, very grateful for him being on the show today and grateful to have him in my orbit, working together and doing deals together. It’s a great guy. If you liked what you heard, please hook us up with a like or a five-star review. This is my basic pandering.

Help us out. You can find me on Twitter at MPD. And to hear more of my conversations with innovators, subscribe on YouTube, Facebook, or any major podcast platform. Just search for innovation with Mark Peter Davis.

Und warum?

Diese Woche war ich in Finse, Norwegen, um für eine bevorstehende Polarexpedition zu trainieren. Das Training beinhaltete Skifahren bis zu 25 km pro Tag, während man einen 130 Pfund schweren Schlitten im Schneesturm zog, in eiskalten Zelten schlief, dehydrierte Nahrung zu sich nahm und nur eine Schaufel als Toilette zur Verfügung hatte. Es war schmerzhaft, kalt und schwierig, und doch habe ich es geliebt.

Ich habe oft darüber nachgedacht, warum viele Unternehmer wie ich Abenteuerreisen und Extremsportarten lieben. Es ist eine scheinbare Ironie, denn wir haben alles, was wir uns wünschen. Das ist doppelt ironisch, denn ich bin dankbar und optimistisch gebaut. Es vergeht kein Tag, an dem ich nicht dankbar bin für alles, was mir das Leben geschenkt hat: eine wunderbare Familie, viele enge Freunde, Gesundheit, die Möglichkeit, meiner Bestimmung nachzugehen, die Freiheit zu erforschen und eine Begabung für Glück.

Warum bringen wir uns also in Situationen, in denen wir uns genau der Dinge berauben, für die wir dankbar sind, und riskieren, alles zu verlieren?

Ich erinnere mich noch lebhaft daran, wie ich im Jahr 2000 ein Formel-1-Auto fuhr. Als ich ihn an seine Grenzen brachte, verlangsamte sich die Zeit. Ich habe mich nie so lebendig gefühlt wie in diesem Moment, in dem ich wusste, dass ich die Kontrolle verlieren würde, wenn ich noch schneller fahren würde. Nach einem Leben voller beruflicher und persönlicher Risikobereitschaft, als Tech-Gründer und Investor, der gerne Heliskiing und Kitesurfen betreibt und viele Arten von Abenteuerreisen unternimmt, habe ich ein paar Erkenntnisse.

1. Eine Liebe für Flow-Zustände

Flow-Zustände sind magisch. Es sind diese Momente, in denen alles andere verschwindet und Sie im Einklang mit Ihrer Umgebung sind, eins mit Ihrer Umwelt und auf höchstem Niveau arbeiten. Doch sie sind flüchtig und nicht die Norm des menschlichen Daseins.

Wie ich in meiner bevorstehenden Rezension von Stealing Fire näher erläutern werde, sind Extremsportarten eine erstaunliche Möglichkeit, den Flow-Zustand zu nutzen, da sie Fokus und Konzentration erfordern. Das Risiko des Todes scheint den Affengeist zu beruhigen. In meinem Fall ist mein Geist von vornherein eher ruhig, möglicherweise weil ich an Aphantasie leide. Dennoch liebe ich diesen meditativen Zustand, in den ich beim Skifahren im Tiefschnee gerate, wenn ich die Landschaft auf mich wirken lasse und mich in einem fließenden Tanz durch die Bäume schlängele. Ebenso liebe ich es, beim Kitesurfen oder Kitefoiling über die Wellen zu fliegen, die Sonne auf meinem Gesicht zu spüren, den Wind in meinen Haaren und den Geruch des Meeres um mich herum, die Konturen der Wellen unter meinen Füßen zu erleben.

Und so war es auch letzte Woche. Ich war erschöpft und zog meinen Schlitten in einem Schneesturm, bei dem ich nicht sehen konnte, ob ich hoch oder runter fuhr. Mein gesamtes Sichtfeld war zu 100% weiß. Ich konzentrierte mich nur auf meinen Atem und ließ einen Fuß, dann den nächsten im Rhythmus gleiten: eins, zwei, eins, zwei, immer und immer wieder. Ich geriet in einen tranceartigen Zustand, in dem ich mich eins mit den Elementen fühlte. Unsere Köpfe mögen wohl keine leeren Leinwände, denn ich begann zu halluzinieren, dass wir uns in einem Tal befänden, in dem in der Ferne eine Hütte Schutz bieten würde. In diesem Moment verstand ich, wie Reisende, die sich in der Wüste verirren, die Fata Morgana einer Oase sehen können. (Um das klarzustellen, ich war nicht auf irgendeiner Substanz, weder psychedelisch noch sonst wie).

Das soll nicht heißen, dass Extremsportarten und Abenteuerreisen die einzige Möglichkeit sind, einen Flow-Zustand zu erreichen. Ganz im Gegenteil, ich erlebe sie durch Meditation, Psychedelika, tantrischen Sex oder wenn ich in der Zone bin, während ich Padel oder Tennis spiele. Das sind alles verschiedene Modalitäten, die wir nutzen können, um denselben Zustand zu erreichen.

Im Westen ist die Beherrschung einer Fähigkeit der häufigste Weg, um einen Flow-Zustand zu erreichen. Es ist immer wieder erstaunlich, Zeuge dieser magischen Darbietungen zu werden. Wir können es immer erkennen, wenn wir Zeuge davon sind. Deshalb bewundern wir die Leistungen von Federer, Messi oder Jordan und belohnen sie entsprechend. Ich habe das in so vielen Zusammenhängen erlebt: als ich Steve Jobs auf der Bühne sah, als ich Derren Browns Zaubershow besuchte, als ich Hamilton am Broadway hörte, aber auch in unzähligen anderen Momenten von „normalen“ Menschen, die eine Fähigkeit gemeistert hatten.

Die einzige Voraussetzung für die Nutzung einer Fähigkeit als Mittel zum Eintritt in einen Flow-Zustand ist die Beherrschung. Während ich Skifahren, Tennis oder Kitesurfen lernte, war ich nie in einem Flow-Zustand. Ich habe mich auf Technik und Wiederholung konzentriert. Erst wenn Sie etwas so gut beherrschen, dass der Prozess im Hintergrund verschwindet, können Sie in der Zone sein. Sie werden gut entlohnt, aber Sie müssen die Stunden investieren.

Deshalb empfehle ich Extremsportarten und Abenteuerreisen. Sie sind eine Abkürzung. Sie brauchen keine Beherrschung. Ich kann bestätigen, dass ich nur wenige Fähigkeiten habe, wenn es darum geht, in der Kälte und beim Skilanglauf zu überleben, aber die damit verbundenen Gefahren fokussieren Ihre Aufmerksamkeit und wirken wie eine Maschine, die einen Flow-Zustand erzeugt.

2. Ein Sinn, der in der menschlichen Existenz verwurzelt ist

Wir Menschen scheinen ein tief verwurzeltes Bedürfnis nach Gefahr und Nervenkitzel zu haben. Wahrscheinlich wurde sie in unsere Psyche eingebaut, denn die meiste Zeit der Existenz des Homo sapiens waren wir dem Tod durch andere Menschen, die Tierwelt und die Natur selbst ausgesetzt.

Deshalb haben viele meiner Freunde aus dem Militär oft Schwierigkeiten, sich anzupassen, wenn sie aus dem aktiven Dienst nach Hause kommen. Die Alltäglichkeit des modernen Lebens scheint langweilig im Vergleich zu den Situationen, in denen es täglich um Leben und Tod geht. Kleinere traditionelle Freundschaften verblassen im Vergleich zu dem Band, das sie mit ihren Waffenbrüdern haben.

Wir haben das Gefühl, dass das moderne Leben, in dem alles sicher, hygienisch und oberflächlich ist, etwas Leeres und Unbefriedigendes an sich hat. Vielleicht brauchen wir alle ein bisschen Gefahr und Risiko, um uns daran zu erinnern, wofür wir leben.

Extremsportarten und Abenteuerreisen sind eine solche Form des synthetischen Risikos. Wir gehen Risiken ein, aber in einem maßvollen und kontrollierten Umfeld. Wir wollen die Leiden und Entbehrungen eines echten Krieges nicht erleben, aber unsere Psyche muss den Nervenkitzel und die Möglichkeit des Risikos spüren.

Es ist erwähnenswert, dass viele „riskante“ Dinge weniger riskant sind, als sie auf den ersten Blick erscheinen mögen. Als ich meinen Eltern erzählte, dass ich McKinsey mit 23 Jahren verließ, waren sie entsetzt. Ich war gerade zum Associate befördert worden. Ich habe fast zweihunderttausend Dollar im Jahr verdient. Bis zu diesem Zeitpunkt war ich noch nie an etwas gescheitert, das ich versucht hatte. Abgesehen davon, dass sie die Sicherheit und das Prestige des Jobs verließen, hatten sie Angst, dass ein Misserfolg mich vernichten würde.

In gewisser Weise hatten sie Recht. Bei meinem ersten Startup bin ich von Null auf den Helden gestiegen. Ich habe es in zwei Jahren mit über 100 Mitarbeitern auf einen monatlichen Bruttowarenumsatz von über 10 Millionen Dollar gebracht. Ich schaffte es auf die Titelseiten aller Zeitschriften und war ein Held der Internet-Revolution in Frankreich. Dann stürzte alles ein. Die Internetblase ist geplatzt und ich bin von einem Helden zu einer Nullnummer geworden und habe alles verloren. Die schlimmsten Befürchtungen meiner Eltern hatten sich bewahrheitet.

Doch was hatte ich wirklich verloren? Ich hatte Vertrauen in meine Fähigkeiten. Selbst wenn ich eine Weile auf ihrer Couch pennen musste, hatte ich keine Angst, dass ich verhungern würde. Im schlimmsten Fall könnte ich jederzeit zu McKinsey zurückkehren oder einen normalen Job annehmen. Ich wusste, dass meine Fähigkeiten wertvoll waren und geschätzt wurden. Im Gegenzug lebte ich ein Leben mit Sinn. Ich hatte einen klaren Fokus und ein Gefühl für meine Mission. Deshalb habe ich mich letztendlich dafür entschieden, ein Internet-Unternehmer zu bleiben. Ich war ohnehin nicht angetreten, um Geld zu verdienen. Ich wollte einfach nur etwas aus dem Nichts aufbauen und die Technologie nutzen, um die Welt zu einem besseren Ort zu machen. Da die Blase geplatzt war, dachte ich, dass das, was ich bauen würde, nicht unbedingt sehr groß sein würde, aber das störte mich nicht. Am Ende lag ich mit dieser Einschätzung falsch und war erfolgreicher als ich es mir je erträumt hätte.

Das Gleiche gilt für die Risiken, die mit Abenteuerreisen verbunden sind. Das Sterberisiko ist äußerst gering. Ich glaube, was die Menschen wirklich fürchten, sind die Unannehmlichkeiten, die sie erleben werden. Es stimmt, Sie werden mit Unannehmlichkeiten konfrontiert werden, aber im Gegenzug werden Sie ein Gefühl der Vollendung bekommen, das im modernen Leben seinesgleichen sucht.

3. Dankbarkeit üben

Menschen schätzen das, was sie haben, am meisten, wenn sie Gefahr laufen, es zu verlieren. Ich bin zutiefst dankbar, aber jedes Mal, wenn ich von einem einwöchigen Campingurlaub zurückkomme, bin ich so dankbar für all die kleinen Dinge, die wir für selbstverständlich halten. Ich staune wirklich über die Magie des modernen Lebens. Ich staune über das Licht, das auf Knopfdruck angeht, über die Möglichkeit, heißes Wasser aus dem Wasserhahn zu bekommen, ganz zu schweigen von der Bequemlichkeit von Sanitäranlagen in Gebäuden. Ich bin auch unendlich dankbar für die kulinarischen Köstlichkeiten, die in der modernen Gesellschaft verfügbar sind, in der jede Kombination von Aromen und Geschmacksrichtungen möglich zu sein scheint.

Und lassen Sie mich nicht von der Magie der modernen Kommunikation und des Reisens anfangen. Im Grunde haben wir alle Zugang zur Summe des Wissens der Menschheit in unseren Taschen, und zwar in einem Gerät, das gleichzeitig ein kostenloses drahtloses Videokommunikationssystem ist. Wir können mit unzähligen Menschen auf der ganzen Welt in Kontakt treten. Darüber hinaus haben wir die Möglichkeit, sie in weniger als 24 Stunden am anderen Ende der Welt zu besuchen. Das sind Leistungen, die in der Vergangenheit nicht nur unmöglich, sondern im Grunde unvorstellbar gewesen wären. Sie sind so außergewöhnlich, dass sie sich wie echte Magie anfühlen!

4. Offenheit für glückliche Zufälle

Auf meiner Polarexpedition teilte ich mir mit Dr. Jack Kreindler ein Zelt für mehrere Nächte. Diese magische Kombination aus gemeinsamem Überleben über einen längeren Zeitraum und gemeinsamem Überstehen von Widrigkeiten, bei denen wir wirklich aufeinander angewiesen waren, führte dazu, dass wir schnell Freunde wurden. Ich lernte seinen Intellekt, seine persönliche Mission, seine Direktheit, seinen unflätigen Humor und seine Abenteuerlust lieben.

Der wahre Zauber war jedoch, dass dies völlig ungeplant war. Hätte er mich angesprochen und gesagt, dass ich interessant klinge und wir zusammen campen gehen sollten, um uns kennen zu lernen, hätte ich Nein gesagt. Ich führe ein arbeitsreiches Leben. Aber so ist das Glück, wenn man zu den Gelegenheiten, die sich einem bieten, ja sagt, und ich bin sicher, dass wir noch viele Jahre lang Freunde sein werden.

5. Neue Erkenntnisse

Es ist etwas Schönes, etwas Neues zu lernen. Sich in neue, ungewohnte Umgebungen zu begeben, ist eine großartige Möglichkeit, neue Fähigkeiten zu erlernen, neue neuronale Verbindungen zu schaffen und sich jung zu halten.

Ich habe in meinem Leben schon viel bei warmem Wetter gezeltet, aber noch nie bei kaltem Wetter, abgesehen von der Nacht, in der ich versehentlich in einem verrückten Schneesturm im August im Yellowstone gefangen war, völlig unvorbereitet und unzureichend ausgerüstet. Außerdem bin ich zwar ein großartiger Abfahrtsläufer, aber ich bin noch nie Langlauf gefahren.

Ich musste in der letzten Woche so viele Dinge lernen: wie man das Zelt so aufbaut, dass es nicht von den antarktischen Winden weggeblasen wird; wie man Langlaufski mit einem 130 Pfund schweren Flaschenzug zieht; wie man Schnee für Wasser und zum Kochen im Zelt schmilzt; wie man sich bei all dem warm hält; und so vieles mehr.

Ich entdeckte auch, dass Finse die Snowkite-Hauptstadt der Welt ist, also beschloss ich, meinen Aufenthalt zu verlängern, um Snowkiten zu lernen. Deshalb denke ich darüber nach, meine Antarktisreise zu verlängern. Ich soll im nächsten Januar den letzten Grad zum Südpol fahren. Jetzt denke ich, dass ich auch vom Südpol zur Herkules-Station zurückfliegen sollte.

6. Klarheit der Gedanken

Eine Auszeit von der täglichen Routine ist eine wunderbare Möglichkeit, nachdenklich zu werden. Wir haben oft Gedanken, die uns belasten und eine Entscheidung erfordern. Die Hektik des modernen Lebens und die Emotionen des Augenblicks machen es jedoch schwierig, unser Reptiliengehirn zu überwinden und klares, leidenschaftsloses Denken zu aktivieren.

Abenteuerreisen führen Sie aus Ihrer gewohnten Umgebung heraus, und die scheinbaren Risiken, die damit verbunden sind, versetzen Sie in einen hypnotischen Zustand, in dem Lösungen scheinbar aus dem Nichts kommen. Sie können Probleme in einem neuen Licht sehen und eine rationale Lösung für die Probleme finden, mit denen Sie konfrontiert sind, indem Sie einen Aktionsplan und einen Kurs vorgeben.

7. Geerdet bleiben

Erfolg zu haben, kann manchmal bedeuten, den Unterschied zwischen Bedürfnissen und Wünschen aus den Augen zu verlieren. Erfahrungen wie das Training in der Arktis können den Unterschied wieder deutlich machen und uns daran erinnern, dass wir eigentlich nur wenige Bedürfnisse haben – Gesundheit, Wasser, Nahrung, eine einfache Unterkunft und Gesellschaft.

Fazit

Das ist es, was das Leben ausmacht. Ein Flickenteppich aus Erlebnissen, die wir mit unserer Familie und unseren Freunden zusammenstellen oder in die wir uns verlieben und die wir mit der ganzen Gemeinschaft nacherzählen, und deren Erinnerungen unser Herz und unseren Verstand lebendig halten.

Das größte Risiko besteht darin, kein Risiko einzugehen. Wenn Sie die Grundlagen der Maslowschen Bedürfnishierarchie erfüllt haben, sagen Sie Ja zu Abenteuern, Chancen und scheinbar riskanten Unternehmungen. Sie sind weniger riskant, als es den Anschein hat, und Sie werden sich lebendiger fühlen, in magische Flow-Zustände eintreten, ein tiefes Gefühl der Sinnhaftigkeit bekommen, Dankbarkeit lernen und neue magische Begegnungen und Erkenntnisse haben, während Sie Ihren Geist klären.

Als frischgebackene Mutter ermutige ich meinen Sohn bereits, positive Risiken einzugehen. Er liebt es, zu allen Abenteuern mitgenommen zu werden. Ich setze ihn in ein Tragetuch und er schreit vor Vergnügen, wenn die Welt an ihm vorbeifliegt, während wir mit dem Fahrrad oder auf Skiern unterwegs sind und generell wie verrückt herumrennen. Während wir sprechen, halte ich ihn an seinen Fingern, während er versucht, seine ersten Schritte zu machen.

Gehen Sie da raus und leben Sie!

Das große Unbekannte

Vor einem Jahr habe ich in Welcome to the Everything Bubble argumentiert, dass eine beispiellose Kombination aus lockerer Geld- und Fiskalpolitik eine Blase in jeder Anlageklasse anheizt. Wir sahen eine Überschwänglichkeit bei Aktien, Kryptowährungen, Immobilien, Grundstücken, Rohstoffen und Anleihen sowie eine regelrechte Spekulationsblase bei SPACs. Ungewöhnliches Verhalten wie von Einzelhändlern getriebene Short-Squeezes und außergewöhnliche Volatilität deuteten darauf hin, dass wir uns am oder nahe dem Höhepunkt des Marktes befanden.

Bei FJ Labs waren wir natürlich massive Nutznießer der Blase, da alle unsere Investitionen wahnsinnig schnell aufgewertet wurden. Wir waren uns bewusst, dass wir zwar denken, dass wir gute Arbeit bei der Auswahl von Anlagen leisten, dass wir aber auch von dem überschwänglichen Umfeld profitiert haben. In einer Blase sehen wir alle wie Genies aus. Wir haben uns meine makroökonomischen Bedenken zu Herzen genommen und einige unserer hochfliegenden Gewinner in Nebenwerten verkauft. Das liegt nicht daran, dass wir nicht an sie geglaubt hätten, ganz im Gegenteil, aber sie sind in der Regel die einzigen Positionen, in die wir etwas Liquidität bekommen können. Außerdem verkaufen wir in der Regel nur 50% unserer Position.

Seitdem hat der Markt vor allem bei Tech-Aktien und Kryptowährungen korrigiert. 40% der Nasdaq-Aktien sind in jedem Tech-Sektor um mehr als 50% gefallen.

Die Multiplikatoren für börsennotierte Technologieunternehmen sind deutlich gesunken. Die SaaS-Multiplikatoren liegen jetzt wieder unter dem langfristigen Median.

Die meisten Krypto-Assets sind ebenfalls um über 50% gefallen.

Das wirft die Frage auf, was wir jetzt tun sollten. Darin liegt das Problem, denn wie es weitergeht, ist äußerst ungewiss. In der Vergangenheit hatte ich mehr Gewissheit und Klarheit im Denken. In den späten 1990er Jahren veröffentlichte ich Artikel, in denen ich erklärte, dass wir uns in einer Technologieblase befanden und dass diese zwar platzen würde, aber auch die Grundlage für das kommende Wachstum legen würde. Mitte der 2000er Jahre habe ich in diesem Blog argumentiert, dass man angesichts der überhöhten Immobilienpreise lieber mieten als kaufen sollte. Wie bereits erwähnt, habe ich vor einem Jahr darauf hingewiesen, dass jede Anlageklasse überbewertet ist. Jetzt kann ich vernünftige Argumente dafür vorbringen, warum sich die Dinge erholen könnten, warum sie seitwärts gehen werden und warum wir noch viel mehr Rückschläge haben könnten.

Ein unsicheres makro- und geopolitisches Umfeld

A. Der optimistische Fall

Ich wollte mit dem optimistischen Fall beginnen, weil in dieser Zeit der Untergangsstimmung kaum jemand daran glaubt. Der Verbraucherpreisindex ist in den 12 Monaten bis Februar 2022 um 7,9% gestiegen, der größte 12-Monats-Anstieg seit 40 Jahren. Um eine galoppierende Inflation zu verhindern, wird die Fed die Zinsen in diesem Jahr voraussichtlich 5 Mal um insgesamt mindestens 1,5% anheben. Historisch gesehen haben die meisten schnellen Zinserhöhungen der Fed zu einer Rezession geführt.

Der Grund für den Rückzug der öffentlichen Märkte, insbesondere für Risikoanlagen wie Tech-Aktien und Kryptowährungen, ist der erwartete Anstieg der US-Zinsen. Der Grund dafür, dass sich Zinserhöhungen stärker auf Risikoaktiva auswirken, liegt darin, dass der Wert von Risikoaktiva stärker von Cashflows in der fernen Zukunft abhängt. Der Wert eines Unternehmens ist der Nettogegenwartswert der zukünftigen diskontierten Cashflows.

Stellen Sie sich ein Tech-Startup vor, von dem erwartet wird, dass es in 10 Jahren 1 Milliarde Dollar an Cashflow abwirft. Wenn der Abzinsungssatz 0% beträgt, dann erhöht dieser zukünftige Cashflow die Bewertung des Unternehmens um 1 Milliarde Dollar. Wenn der Abzinsungssatz jedoch 10 % beträgt, erhöht der gleiche Cashflow von 1 Milliarde Dollar zehn Jahre später die aktuelle Bewertung des Unternehmens nur um 385 Millionen Dollar. Wenn wir von sehr niedrigen Zinssätzen ausgehen, braucht es keine große Veränderung der Zinssätze, um große Auswirkungen auf die Bewertungen zu haben, insbesondere bei Unternehmen, bei denen die meisten Cashflows in der relativ fernen Zukunft anfallen.

Ein großer Teil des Inflationsanstiegs ist auf die Verknappung der Lieferkette zurückzuführen, die durch einen massiven Anstieg der Nachfrage nach Waren verursacht wurde. Dies wiederum war auf einen Rückgang der Nachfrage nach Dienstleistungen zurückzuführen, da die Verbraucher nicht mehr reisen, in Restaurants oder ins Kino gehen konnten usw.

Mit all diesem zusätzlich verfügbaren Einkommen haben die Verbraucher online eingekauft. Es stellt sich heraus, dass unsere Infrastruktur nicht für eine so schnelle Skalierung ausgelegt ist. Die Anzahl der Containerschiffe in der Welt, die Anzahl der verfügbaren Container, der Durchsatz unserer Häfen, die Verfügbarkeit von Lastwagen und Lastwagenfahrern, die Verfügbarkeit von Chassis (den Anhängern, die die Container transportieren), all das war überfordert und verstopfte das System. Wir haben einfach nicht genug von diesen wichtigen Elementen der Lieferkette oder belastbare Systeme, die flexibel genug sind, um die Versorgung mit diesen Gütern dorthin zu verlagern, wo sie gebraucht werden.

Hinzu kommt, dass sich die Logistiknetzwerke des E-Commerce in ihrer geografischen und räumlichen Ausdehnung grundlegend von denen des traditionellen Einzelhandels unterscheiden. Sie sind komplizierter, weil Sie Ihr Inventar in der Nähe Ihrer Nutzer aufbewahren, anstatt alles in einem Distributionszentrum in einem einzigen Hub unterzubringen. Die Unternehmen müssen ihre Lager überall in den Vereinigten Staaten aufstellen, was die Sache exponentiell verkompliziert. Je mehr Menschen also online einkauften, desto mehr waren diese Systeme überlastet.

Verschärft wird dies durch den Krieg in der Ukraine, der die Energiepreise in die Höhe treibt und die Lieferketten weiter unterbricht.

Lassen Sie mich nun darlegen, wie ein optimistischer Ausgang aussehen könnte. Die Verlagerung der Käufe von Dienstleistungen zu Waren wurde durch strenge COVID-Beschränkungen vorangetrieben.

Stellen Sie sich vor, dass jetzt, wo jeder aufgrund von Omnicron COVID hat und/oder dreifach geimpft ist, COVID schließlich endemisch wird. Wir werden zwar noch lange damit leben müssen, aber wir werden lernen, damit zu leben, und die Staaten werden alle Beschränkungen aufheben, so wie es Dänemark und das Vereinigte Königreich getan haben. Die Verbraucher kehren zu ihrem vorherigen Konsumverhalten zurück. Dies dürfte die Lieferketten entlasten und eine deflationäre Wirkung auf die Wirtschaft haben, da die Logistikkosten deutlich sinken.

Darüber hinaus dürfte das Ende der COVID-Entlastungsschecks einen Teil des Nachfrageüberschusses beseitigen, der in die Wirtschaft gepumpt wurde. Wenn dies schnell genug geschieht, so dass sich die Inflationserwartungen nicht verfestigen und die Forderung nach jährlichen Lohnerhöhungen von 7 % nicht zur Norm wird, dürfte sich der Inflationsschub als vorübergehend erweisen, so dass die Fed die Zinsen langsamer als von den Märkten erwartet erhöhen kann.

Auch der Krieg in der Ukraine belastet die Stimmung, und wir befinden uns auf dem Höhepunkt der Unsicherheit. Sollte es in den kommenden Wochen oder Monaten zu einer Lösung kommen, dürfte ein Großteil der geopolitischen Risiken, die die Wirtschaft belasten, wegfallen. Ich hoffe auch, dass die Schwierigkeiten, mit denen Putin in der Ukraine zu kämpfen hat, und die Strenge der Wirtschaftssanktionen Xi Jinping zum Nachdenken über eine mögliche Invasion oder Annexion Taiwans gebracht haben.

Sollten die Inflation und die geopolitischen Spannungen nachlassen, wäre die Wirtschaft gut positioniert, um sich weiterhin gut zu entwickeln und die Märkte zu erholen. Im Vergleich zu anderen Zeiten, in denen sich eine Rezession zusammenbraute, sind die Unternehmen in Bezug auf ihre Liquidität und Verschuldung in einer guten finanziellen Verfassung. Wir haben Vollbeschäftigung mit einer US-Arbeitslosigkeit von 3,8%. Das Haushaltsdefizit geht stark zurück, da der Kongress keine weiteren Entlastungspakete in Erwägung zieht und die zusätzlichen Infrastruktur- und Sozialpakete viel kleiner ausfallen werden als die jüngsten Entlastungspakete.

Langfristig sollte die Technologie auch bei der Bekämpfung der Inflation helfen. Technologie ist deflationär und bietet bessere Benutzererfahrungen zu niedrigeren Kosten. COVID hat zu einer raschen Einführung von Technologien in Wirtschaftsbereichen geführt, die von der technologischen Revolution bisher kaum berührt wurden: Gesundheitswesen, Bildung, B2B und sogar öffentliche Dienstleistungen. Ökonomen wie Tyler Cowen, die zuerst die „Große Stagnation“ beschrieben haben, sagen nun eine erneute Beschleunigung des technologiegetriebenen Wachstums voraus.

Im 4. Quartal des letzten Jahres hätte ich dem optimistischen Szenario eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 50% beigemessen. Im Moment würde ich sagen, dass es etwa 33% sind, aber leider sinkt dieser Anteil täglich.

B. Der Fall der Stagnation

Der optimistische Fall setzt voraus, dass die Inflation nur vorübergehend ist und zum Status quo ante zurückkehrt, so dass die Fed weniger als erwartet erhöhen kann. Je länger die Inflation über dem Trend liegt (sagen wir 2 – 2,5%), desto wahrscheinlicher ist es, dass sich die Inflationserwartungen verfestigen. Der saisonbereinigte durchschnittliche Stundenverdienst in der Privatwirtschaft stieg im Februar um 5,1% im Vergleich zum Vorjahr. Das ist zwar immer noch niedriger als die Inflation, aber wenn die Arbeitnehmer jedes Jahr eine automatische Gehaltserhöhung von 7% erhalten, um die Inflation zu bekämpfen, wird die Inflation bei 7% verankert.

Staaten sind im Allgemeinen risikoscheu und handeln langsam. Sie können die Beschränkungen langsamer lockern als gerechtfertigt. Dadurch würde die Nachfrage nach Waren länger künstlich aufgebläht, die Lieferketten verstopft und die Preise hoch gehalten. Dies wiederum würde die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöhen, dass sich höhere Inflationserwartungen verfestigen.

Es gibt auch ein wachsendes Gefühl, dass viele mit einer höheren Inflation zufrieden wären. Die weltweite Verschuldung ist mit über 250% des BIP so hoch wie nie zuvor, was Regierungen, Unternehmen und Haushalte besonders anfällig für höhere Zinsen macht.

Eine dauerhaft höhere Inflation würde viele Kosten mit sich bringen: geringere Kaufkraft, geringere Investitionen, Fehlallokation von Kapital, Zerstörung des Wertes von Ersparnissen. Kurzfristig würden negative Realzinsen jedoch auch den Wert der Schulden mindern.

In Kriegszeiten haben die Staaten höhere Inflationsraten für relativ lange Zeiträume toleriert, wie Sie in der folgenden Grafik für den Ersten Weltkrieg, den Zweiten Weltkrieg und den Vietnamkrieg sehen können.

Die russische Invasion in der Ukraine steht zwar noch ganz am Anfang, aber der derzeitige Sumpf, in dem sich die russischen Streitkräfte befinden, könnte zu einem langwierigen Konflikt führen und eine Wolke der Unsicherheit schaffen, die die Stimmung beeinflusst.

Es ist leicht zu erkennen, wie das Szenario der Stagnation abläuft. Die Zinssätze steigen, aber nicht genug, um den gestiegenen Inflationserwartungen entgegenzuwirken. Politiker und die Fed akzeptieren eine über dem Trend liegende Inflation. In Verbindung mit der geopolitischen Unsicherheit würden wir uns auf ein niedriges reales Wachstum einstellen. In dieser Hinsicht könnten wir anfangen, so auszusehen, wie viele lateinamerikanische Länder jahrzehntelang aussahen. Anstatt nominales Wachstum und Werte zu verfolgen, sollten wir reale Werte verfolgen. Auch wenn die Märkte nominal nicht wesentlich fallen, ist es sehr wahrscheinlich, dass die realen Bewertungen im Laufe der Zeit sinken werden.

Dieses Szenario ist zum jetzigen Zeitpunkt wohl das wahrscheinlichste.

C. Der pessimistische Fall

Es besteht die reale Möglichkeit, dass das Schlimmste noch bevorsteht, denn die Zahl der Szenarien, die zu einem katastrophalen Ausgang führen könnten, wächst von Tag zu Tag. Zwar wird die Geldpolitik etwas gestrafft, aber die Fed und die Regierung betreiben im historischen Vergleich immer noch eine lockere Geld- und Fiskalpolitik. Eine Erhöhung der Zinssätze um 1,5% reicht möglicherweise nicht aus, um die Inflation einzudämmen. Im Jahr 1981 brachte Volcker die US-Zinsen auf über 20%.

Sie brauchen kein Volcker 2.0-Szenario, um immer noch erhebliche Auswirkungen auf die Märkte und die Wirtschaft zu haben. Selbst ein Zinssatz von 5%, ein Niveau, das zuletzt im Jahr 2007 erreicht wurde, würde die Wirtschaft enorm verlangsamen und die Bewertungen, insbesondere von Risikoanlagen, senken. Auch wenn die Aktienmärkte korrigiert haben, liegen die Bewertungen immer noch weit über den historischen Durchschnittswerten.

S&P KGV im Zeitverlauf

Es wäre nicht unvorstellbar, dass sich die Bewertungen gegenüber dem jetzigen Stand halbieren, zumal die Erträge angesichts höherer Energiekosten und der Folgen des Ausstiegs aus Russland wahrscheinlich sinken werden.

Schlimmer noch, es gibt noch viele andere Szenarien, die zu einer globalen Finanzkrise und einer allgemeinen „Risk-off“-Mentalität führen könnten. Politiker, die Öffentlichkeit und die Presse scheinen wie das Auge von Sauron zu sein. Sie sind nur in der Lage, sich auf ein Thema zur gleichen Zeit zu konzentrieren. Lange Zeit war das Trump, dann COVID und jetzt die russische Invasion in der Ukraine. Ich habe mich oft gefragt, ob nach dem COVID nicht die Aufmerksamkeit auf den unhaltbaren Anstieg der Staatsschulden in vielen Ländern während des COVID gelenkt werden würde.

In Italien, Griechenland, Spanien und Portugal ist die Staatsverschuldung in den letzten Jahren erheblich gestiegen.

Italiens Schulden im Verhältnis zum BIP sind in den letzten 15 Jahren von 100% auf über 150% gestiegen.

Eine Vertrauenskrise bei den italienischen Schulden könnte das gesamte Euro-Projekt zum Einsturz bringen. Die griechische Schuldenkrise hat eine massive globale Finanzkrise ausgelöst. Die italienische Wirtschaft ist zehnmal größer, und die Krise wäre umso größer. In einem solchen Szenario könnte das gesamte Finanzsystem kollabieren. Viele Banken wären den Schulden des säumigen Staates ausgesetzt. Die Banken würden sich davor hüten, miteinander zu handeln, was ein Risiko für die Gegenpartei mit sich bringt, wie es während der Großen Rezession von 2007-2009 der Fall war.

Eine solche Krise könnte auch durch die Zahlungsunfähigkeit eines Schwellenlandes ausgelöst werden oder einfach durch die Zahlungsunfähigkeit einer großen Bank aus einer Vielzahl von Gründen, einschließlich eines möglicherweise zu großen Engagements in Russland. Insbesondere Credit Suisse und UBS fühlen sich angreifbar. Sie standen im Mittelpunkt jedes internationalen Debakels, das in letzter Zeit mit faulen Krediten zu tun hatte, z.B. Archegos, Greensil, Luckin Coffee, usw. Die auf Fremdwährungen lautenden Kredite machen allein ~400% des Schweizer BIP aus. Offiziell belaufen sich die Aktiva des Schweizer Bankensystems auf das ~ 4,7-fache des BIP, aber dabei sind die außerbilanziellen Aktiva nicht berücksichtigt. Bezieht man diese mit ein, ist ein Verhältnis von ~9,5x 10x genauer.

Die Schweiz gilt seit langem als ein sicherer Hafen mit einer florierenden und stabilen Wirtschaft und einer homogenen Bevölkerung. Ich vermute, dass sich die Schweizer Banken in der nächsten Krise als „too big to bail“ und nicht als „too big to fail“ erweisen und die gesamte Schweizer Wirtschaft mit sich in den Abgrund reißen könnten.

Das ist nichts Neues. Vor der globalen Finanzkrise galt Island viele Jahre lang als wirtschaftliche Erfolgsgeschichte, die vom IWF und der Elite gelobt wurde. Nur wenigen war aufgefallen, dass die drei größten isländischen Banken Kaupthing , Glitner und Landsbanki in den sieben Jahren vor 2008 eine spektakuläre Kreditvergabe betrieben hatten, die dazu führte, dass ihre Gesamtaktiva auf das >11-fache des isländischen BIP anstiegen (von <1x vorher). Abgesehen von der schieren Größe ihrer Kreditbücher haben die isländischen Banken ihr Risiko durch schlechte Kreditvergabe an höchst zweifelhafte Kreditnehmer erhöht, die oft nicht auf die einheimische Krone lauteten (z.B. ~50 Mrd. € an Euro-Krediten gegenüber nur ~2 Mrd. € an Euro-Einlagen). Als Anfang 2008 die Liquidität versiegte und man begann, die Solvenz der 3 großen isländischen Banken in Frage zu stellen, bedeutete deren enorme Größe im Verhältnis zum gesamten isländischen BIP, dass die isländische Zentralbank nicht in der Lage war, effektiv als Kreditgeber der letzten Instanz zu agieren. Das Ergebnis war ein totaler Zusammenbruch des Bankensystems, ein sanfter Staatsbankrott und eine wirtschaftliche Depression, da Island selbst ein massives Rettungspaket vom IWF in Anspruch nehmen musste. Die Krone brach um ~35% gegenüber dem Euro ein, und die Kapitalisierung des isländischen Aktienmarktes fiel um über 90%.

Wir können andere Risikofaktoren nicht ignorieren. In der Nachkriegszeit folgte in den USA auf jeden Anstieg des realen Ölpreises auf über 100 Dollar pro Barrel eine Rezession. Dieses Muster hat sich in den Jahren 1973, 1979, 1990 und 2007 wiederholt.

Die geopolitischen Spannungen könnten ebenfalls eskalieren. Es ist nicht mehr unvorstellbar, dass Russland eine taktische Atombombe in der Ukraine einsetzt. Der Konflikt könnte sich leicht auf andere Länder ausweiten. Es ist nicht klar, wo unsere rote Linie verläuft und was passieren würde, wenn Russland beispielsweise Cyberangriffe auf die Infrastruktur unserer NATO-Verbündeten startet. Es ist auch möglich, dass Xi Jinping ein Spiel um Taiwan spielt, während wir in der Ukraine abgelenkt sind und die globale Stabilität weiter bedrohen.

In der nicht allzu fernen Vergangenheit habe ich all diesen Szenarien geringe Wahrscheinlichkeiten zugeschrieben, aber jetzt werden sie immer wahrscheinlicher und werden von Tag zu Tag wahrscheinlicher.

Makro-Schlussfolgerungen

Es besteht jetzt mehr Abwärts- als Aufwärtsrisiko, da ich den optimistischen Fall derzeit bei 33% (mit fallender Tendenz) wäge. Wenn es um den Wechsel zwischen Angst und Gier geht, ist es an der Zeit, mehr Angst zu haben. In Bärenmärkten wird jedoch ein Vermögen gemacht. Wie Buffett schon sagte, sollten wir ängstlich sein, wenn andere gierig sind, und gierig, wenn andere ängstlich sind.

Um uns in einem Bärenmarkt offensiv zu positionieren (entweder als Anleger oder als Gründer), müssen wir proaktiv sein, bevor der Bärenmarkt eintritt. Sowohl für Investoren als auch für Gründer ist der Ratschlag einfach: Legen Sie jetzt eine Kriegskasse an. Für Gründer bedeutet dies, dass sie genug Geld auftreiben müssen, um zu überleben und in schwierigen Zeiten die Konkurrenz unter Druck zu setzen. Für die Anleger bedeutet dies, dass sie ihre Liquidität erhöhen müssen, weil sie die Chance haben, attraktive Vermögenswerte zu Centbeträgen zu kaufen.

Privatpersonen sollten versuchen, langfristige Festhypotheken zu den heutigen niedrigen Zinssätzen abzuschließen, solange sie noch können. Ich würde Ihnen auch empfehlen, den Betrag der Darlehen ohne Rückgriffsrecht, die Sie zu einem niedrigen 30-jährigen Festzins für Ihr Haus aufnehmen können, zu maximieren. Die Inflation wird Ihre Schuldenlast abbauen. Ich habe zum Beispiel vor kurzem meine Hypothek für meine New Yorker Wohnung neu verhandelt.

Trotz der hohen Inflation würde ich einen angemessenen Betrag an Bargeld vorrätig halten. Während sein Wert deflationiert wird, bietet er Ihnen die Möglichkeit, Vermögenswerte günstig zu kaufen, sollte es zu einer größeren Korrektur kommen. Das ist der Grund, warum wir in den letzten 12 Monaten eine aggressive Sekundärstrategie verfolgt haben. Beachten Sie, dass ich mein Bargeld in dezentralen Finanzanlagen halte und versichere, um mit geringem Risiko Renditen über der Inflation zu erzielen. Ich arbeite an einer Möglichkeit, die Lösung, die ich selbst verwende, mit einer viel größeren Gruppe zu teilen.

Gründer sollten jetzt aufstocken und dabei die Wirtschaftlichkeit und den Verbrauch ihrer Einheiten im Auge behalten. Die Multiplikatoren des privaten Marktes sind noch nicht auf das Niveau der öffentlichen Märkte gesunken. Bei einer potenziellen Multiplikatorenkompression könnten Sie heute die gleiche Bewertung erhalten wie in 1 Jahr, obwohl Sie 1 Jahr Wachstum haben.

Geschichte übertrumpft Makro

Ich möchte Sie mit einer optimistischen Note verlassen. Die Gezeiten der Geschichte übertrumpfen den makroökonomischen Zyklus. Sie arbeiten nur auf einer anderen Zeitskala. Die letzten zweihundert Jahre waren eine Geschichte des Wirtschaftswachstums, das vom menschlichen Erfindungsreichtum angetrieben wurde. Über einen langen Zeitraum hinweg werden Rezessionen und Kriege kaum registriert. Selbst die Große Depression, die zwar unangenehm zu erleben war, ist nur ein kleiner Ausrutscher in der Geschichte des Fortschritts.

In den letzten 40 Jahren haben wir zahllose Krisen und Crashs erlebt: die Rezession von 1981-1982, den Schwarzen Montag im Oktober 1987, die Rezession von 1990-1991, das Platzen der Dotcom-Blase & 9/11 und die entsprechende Rezession von 2001, die Große Rezession von 2007-2009 und die COVID-19-Rezession Anfang 2020. Wenn Sie in Technologie investiert haben, waren Sie immer gut dran.

Meine aktuelle Vermögensaufteilung ist wie folgt: 60% illiquide Startups in der Frühphase, 10% börsennotierte Tech-Startups (die Unternehmen aus dem Portfolio, die an die Börse gegangen sind und die ich noch nicht verkauft habe, um sie zu reinvestieren), 10% Kryptowährungen, 10% Immobilien und 10% Bargeld.

Wir stehen immer noch am Anfang der technologischen Revolution und die Software frisst die Welt auf. Ich bin optimistisch, dass wir eine erneute Beschleunigung des technologiegetriebenen Wachstums erleben werden. Wir werden Technologie nutzen, um die Herausforderungen unserer Zeit anzugehen: Klimawandel, Chancenungleichheit, soziale Ungerechtigkeit und die Krise der körperlichen und geistigen Gesundheit.

Daher werde ich mit FJ Labs weiterhin aggressiv in junge Tech-Startups investieren, die sich mit den Problemen der Welt befassen. Die Makrodaten für die nächsten Jahre mögen zwar schlecht sein, sind aber letztlich weitgehend irrelevant. Ich sorge mich mehr um die erstaunlichen Unternehmen, die wir aufbauen werden, um eine bessere Welt von morgen zu schaffen, eine sozial bewusste Welt der Chancengleichheit und des Überflusses.

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